Brent crude fell from $113.726 on 31 October to $88.226 on Tuesday evening — a drop of $25.50, or 22.4%, in eight trading days — and the two-day bounce that followed has already stalled below its first technical hurdle.

The sell-off compressed its damage into a single session. The 4 November evening candle spanned $7.93 and closed $7.41 below its open, by far the largest candle on the chart against a recent average range of $1.86. Brent now trades at $90.88 with the current candle still open.

How weak is the rebound?

From the $88.226 low, Brent recovered $5.28 to reach $93.509 on Wednesday evening. That fell short of even the shallowest Fibonacci retracement of the decline — the 23.6% level at $94.244. No four-hour candle has closed near it.

After a 25-dollar fall, failing to reach the first retracement level marks this as a weak bounce. Thursday's second attempt peaked at $92.606, below Wednesday's high, leaving the sequence of lower highs and lower lows intact.

The descending trendline from the $113.726 peak has capped every rally since the top and now falls by roughly $2.48 a day. It passes near $92.19 at the current candle — and today's rally stalled almost exactly at that line.

What are the resistance levels above?

Traders watching a recovery attempt should track these zones, in order:

• $92.688–$92.797: the area of the 5 November lows that gave way on Monday. Wednesday's rebound briefly moved above it before closing back below; today's high stopped just short.
• $93.41–$94.144: marked by the low of the large 4 November candle and Monday's rebound high, with the 23.6% retracement at $94.244 sitting just above. That makes $94.24 the threshold for a genuine recovery attempt.
• $95.42–$95.98: the zone that held the lows from Friday into Monday before it broke.
• $97.967, $100, $100.976: the 38.2% retracement, the round number, and the 50% retracement.

Where does support sit below?

On 10 November, Brent tested the $88.226–$88.698 support zone three times. The visible chart shows no trading beneath it — one floor, and nothing under it. A break below $88.226 leaves $87.5 and then $85 as the nearest reference levels. The size of the 4 November candle shows how quickly price can travel through that territory.

The relative strength index signals that selling pressure has eased, not reversed. RSI spent most of the decline in oversold territory, bottomed at 18.93 on the evening of the large candle, and has since climbed to 40.61 — back above its average of 35.48. A reading near 40 means momentum has recovered from oversold levels, but the trend remains unconfirmed and could shift in either direction while the candle stays open.

What drives the next move?

The scenarios rest on four-hour closes. A close above $94.244 would clear both the $93.41–$94.144 band and the first retracement, bringing $95.42–$95.98 into focus, followed by $97.967. A close below $88.226 would break the only visible support, opening the path to $87.5 and $85. Between those triggers, Brent trades inside a six-day range, with the trendline near $92.19 as the first hurdle on the way up.

The fundamentals behind the barrels swing on the Middle East. Brent futures settled 1.39% higher at $92.76 on Wednesday 11 November after Iran's security chief said Tehran would not allow any enriched nuclear material to leave the country. Brent gave back those gains on Thursday, falling more than a dollar to $91.29 by 04:26 GMT, as easing tensions cut the geopolitical risk premium while rising OPEC+ output and growing US inventories fed oversupply concerns.

The next scheduled catalyst arrives today. The Veterans Day holiday pushed the EIA's weekly petroleum inventories report to 12:00 US Eastern time, 17:00 UTC. After a week in which inventory builds helped drive prices lower, the release could force another test of the levels above.

For practitioners, the picture is straightforward: the chart shows how little of the sell-off Brent has recovered since the war premium faded, and the market has pinned its verdict between $88.23 and $94.24.