WTI crude has fallen roughly 20% in under two weeks, dropping from a six-month high of 105.756 on October 30 to a two-month low of 84.236 on November 10 — and then the sell-off stopped. That stall is the story. According to Pepperstone's analysis of the WTI spot contract (the cash price for immediate delivery, as opposed to futures), traders are unwinding the geopolitical risk premium built into prices but are unwilling to bet on further declines without harder evidence.

What drove the 20% collapse?

The driver is diplomacy, not demand. Growing hopes of a potential breakthrough between the US and Iran encouraged traders to strip out some of the premium that Middle East tension had added to prices. President Trump's more conciliatory comments on further military action against Iran contributed, as did signs of improving oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for a large share of seaborne crude.

Note what is missing here: no peace agreement exists. Iran's reluctance to compromise over its nuclear programme means, in Pepperstone's assessment, significant obstacles remain to a lasting accord. The sell-off prices a diplomatic outcome that has not yet been delivered — a caveat that hangs over every bullish dollar saved by consumers.

What does this change for supply and inventories?

Easing tension cuts both ways. Recovering Middle Eastern exports combined with subdued demand raise the risk of a global supply surplus, which could cap any sustained recovery in WTI. The latest American Petroleum Institute data pointed to a substantial build in US crude inventories, though API figures are a private estimate; traders were awaiting the official Energy Information Administration report at 1700 GMT for confirmation. Until that print lands, the inventory picture is a claim, not a fact.

Where are the technical levels?

Price action has already broken one marker. WTI closed below 87.206, the 50% Fibonacci retracement (a level dividing the July 2 to September 15 rally into proportional parts) of the summer rally — a breakdown some read as opening the door to deeper losses.

Key support levels below, per Pepperstone:

• 84.236 — the November 10 low; Tuesday's strong rally from this level suggests it is the first support to watch. Closing breaks below it raise the risk of further weakness.
• 82.565 — the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, the next downside target if 84.236 fails.
• 80.317 — the August 26 low, in play only if both lower levels break on a closing basis.

Key resistance levels above:

• 89.040 — Wednesday's session high; how prices behave here may indicate whether risk is shifting back toward upside.
• 92.457 — the 38.2% retracement of the October-to-November decline, potentially stronger resistance.
• 94.996 and 97.535 — the 50% and 61.8% retracements, in sequence, if 92.457 gives way.

What does this change for oil buyers?

In the near term, the direction is genuinely uncertain. Pepperstone frames the question plainly: whether November's sharp sell-off has further to run, or whether WTI is poised for a more sustained recovery. The honest answer embedded in the analysis is that neither outcome is confirmed — the market is waiting on the EIA data and on Iran's actual negotiating behaviour rather than either side's rhetoric.

Pepperstone itself labels the material a marketing communication, not independent investment research, and states it should not be relied upon as accurate, current or complete. Readers should treat the levels above as analytical reference points, not forecasts.