By Sophie Lindqvist

Brent crude fell to $90.42 per barrel on November 10, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped to $84.68, extending the retreat in both benchmark prices. In the previous session, Brent futures lost 5.85%, and WTI fell 4.38%.

US President Donald Trump triggered the latest selling after saying strikes on Iran were unlikely as long as negotiations progressed. Following his November 9 meeting with Qatar’s prime minister, he confirmed that he currently sees “no need to resume strikes.”

Negotiation headlines therefore carry direct price implications: a lower chance of military action reduces the expected disruption to oil shipments. No production or export figures accompany the analysis to show how much physical supply the diplomatic shift affects.

FreshForex’s November 3 forecast set four targets, and the market reached all of them last week. Both benchmarks then lost more than $9 per barrel, reversing that advance. The four targets were:

• Brent traded above $103 and $100.
• WTI traded above $95 and $94.

Why did buyers retreat?

Initial reports of Iran’s contacts with Qatari mediators eased concerns about supply disruptions. Washington’s public readiness to refrain from new strikes reinforced that reassessment.

As the perceived probability of escalation falls, buyers have less reason to pay a risk premium, meaning the extra amount demanded for the possibility that exports will be interrupted. The premium can fall faster than underlying oil supply changes because it prices expected disruption, not only current barrels.

That leaves prices tied to the credibility of diplomacy and actual tanker movement, rather than to negotiations alone. For buyers, the key distinction is between a diplomatic signal and evidence of regular passage through the strait.

What made supply more predictable?

Iraq’s foreign minister announced an agreement with the US providing for the transport of Iraqi oil through the Strait of Hormuz. Tankers would use a route along Oman’s coast.

If they use that route regularly, part of Iraqi supply becomes more predictable. The agreement therefore offers a concrete test of whether diplomatic easing affects actual cargo movements, not just official statements.

It also narrows one reason buyers might pay for supply uncertainty. It does not eliminate risk across the strait, where reports of attacks on vessels continue.

What could bring buyers back?

Trump said the US will maintain its maritime blockade of Iran. At the same time, reports of attacks on vessels continue to emerge around the Strait of Hormuz.

Regular tanker passage now matters more than reassurance alone, because new disruptions could quickly restore part of the risk premium. The blockade can remain in force while shipping risk changes as passages and reports of attacks accumulate.

Any renewed violence would interrupt the market’s current assessment of lower supply-disruption risk. That makes the safety of the route, not simply another negotiating statement, the immediate price variable.

Where could the decline stop?

FreshForex analysts said the fall may continue if negotiations with Iran progress and regular Iraqi tanker voyages confirm that “the agreement with the US is working.” Buyers would then have fewer reasons to pay for supply-disruption risk.

By the end of the week, the analysts forecast specific ranges for both benchmarks. Their estimates were:

• Brent at $87–88 per barrel.
• WTI at $82–83 per barrel.

The forecast is conditional and does not identify a durable floor. The analysis provides no evidence that safe tanker passage will persist, nor does it assign a probability to either outcome.

The proposed levels therefore describe one scenario, not a guaranteed destination. A renewed attack could push prices in the opposite direction by restoring the risk premium.

What does this change for oil buyers?

The immediate change is a lower benchmark price before any renewed disruption. At $90.42 and $84.68, Brent and WTI remain above FreshForex’s conditional end-week ranges, leaving room for further downside if diplomacy and tanker traffic confirm the present path.

Conversely, fresh attacks or interrupted passage through the Strait could bring the risk premium back quickly. The same blockade could remain in force while shipping conditions deteriorate.

The practical question for oil buyers is whether tanker traffic confirms stability; that evidence matters more than negotiation headlines alone. For near-term budgeting, the $87–88 Brent and $82–83 WTI ranges represent the stated downside case, while vessel attacks mark the risk to that case. Neither outcome is certain, and the analysis provides no timing beyond the end-week forecast.