Brent crude has lost 12.88% in 20 trading days, sliding from a 118.00 high on 30 October to an 89.15 low on 10 November. The contract sits 13.08% below its 21-day moving average, and every one of the last five closes has finished under the 50-day line. That is the headline. The question is what the chart actually promises — and, as always with technical setups, it promises less than it appears.

What happened, day by day?

The decline came in discrete steps rather than a smooth slide, according to the TradingView analysis by Forexupgo:

• 30 October: Brent printed a 118.00 high — the top of the preceding 15-day trading range.
• 2 November: the session opened at 111.84 and closed at 104.77, the first decisive leg down.
• 4 November: a low of 93.40, closing at 94.62.
• 10 November: the cycle low of 89.15, with a close at 91.49.
• 12 November: the candle opened at 92.40, up 0.99% on the day. The author concedes it is early and the day can still turn.

Note what the analyst admits: the move has come in wide daily ranges. Anyone trading a fixed-stop plan around these levels is assuming volatility that has already punished both sides.

What do the moving averages say?

The 21-day moving average sits at 106.31 and slopes down; the 50-day average sits at 104.24 and still slopes up. Price trades 13.08% under the first and 11.36% under the second. That divergence — short-term average falling while the longer-term average rises — typically signals a trend in transition, not a confirmed reversal. The analysis does not say which way the transition resolves. That gap matters.

Bounces have so far failed at two specific ceilings: the 98.42 high of 9 November and the 99.25 high of 5 November. Two rejections are a pattern; they are not proof. The author offers no fundamental explanation for the selloff — no supply data, no demand figures, no geopolitical catalyst. This is a chart read, nothing more.

What does this change for the trading plan?

The analysis lays out three scenarios, each conditional on a level breaking:

• If 89.15 holds: Brent stays rangebound between that floor and the 98.42 ceiling — roughly a 10% band with no directional edge.
• If price closes below 89.15: the next chart reference is the 85.48 low from 26 August, implying a further drop of about 4%.
• If 89.15 is reclaimed — specifically if 98.42 breaks: the 50-day average at 104.24 and the 21-day average at 106.31 come back into view, a climb of 13% or more from the 12 November open.

The calendar, for what it is worth, offers no help. The analyst reports no scheduled economic events in the data for the next 48 hours. So the levels themselves carry the entire analytical weight — and levels break as often as they hold.

The author's own framing is the honest one: does 89.15 hold, or does 98.42 reject the next bounce? The piece closes with the standard disclaimer — not financial advice. Given a two-week, near-13% drawdown with no stated catalyst, that caveat deserves more weight than usual. What the chart shows is damage already done. What it forecasts is a coin toss between a range and another leg lower.