Brent crude fell below $90 per barrel on Tuesday for the first time since August, after President Donald Trump said the U.S. conflict with Iran could end "fairly soon." Brent for January delivery traded down 2.65% at $90.14 at 5:33 a.m. ET, according to CNBC and The Wall Street Journal. U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell 2.4% to $84.78.

Trump spoke at the White House on Monday after a meeting with Qatar's prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani. "We're seeing momentum toward the end of this conflict. I think it's going to be ending fairly soon," the president said. He added that Tehran was "talking very politely" with Washington.

What did the president signal about future strikes?

In a post on Truth Social, Trump said further U.S. strikes against Iran "seem to be quite unlikely." The remark repeated his position from Monday, when oil prices also fell and Brent traded at $94.93.

The statement carries weight because the U.S. has refrained from major new offensive strikes since September, according to CNBC. Trump said in early October that attacks would remain on hold until the midterm elections had passed. U.S. officials have described last week's limited strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island as defensive.

How much risk premium has come out of the market?

ING strategists Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson said in a Tuesday note that traders have been paring back the extra cost they had priced in for geopolitical danger — the premium charged for supply-disruption risk — as hopes rise that tensions will ease, CNBC reported. They cited a rebound in oil shipments from the region and reports suggesting Iran could be relaxing its stance on who controls the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for roughly a fifth of globally traded oil.

The pullback follows an unusually volatile year. Brent opened 2026 near $60 a barrel, then spiked to as much as $130 once military strikes intensified in March and April. The recent slide has been fast and steep:

• Nov. 2: Brent traded at $108.68.
• Last Wednesday, the day after Democrats won majorities in the House and Senate: Brent futures stood at $101.02.
• Monday, after Trump called further strikes improbable: Brent at $94.93.
• Tuesday: Brent slipped under $90, touching its lowest level since August.

That marks a decline of roughly 18% from the Nov. 2 level in under two weeks.

Which markets moved alongside oil?

Equities rallied on the easing of tensions. South Korea's Kospi jumped 4.4% and Japan's Nikkei Stock Average climbed 2.9%. In early European trading, the Stoxx 600 was 0.7% higher.

The moves reflect a broad repricing of geopolitical risk across asset classes, with energy exporters bearing the pressure and import-heavy Asian equity markets gaining most.

Do all analysts expect a deal?

Not all analysts see a negotiated settlement ahead. Fereidun Fesharaki, chairman of energy consultancy FGE, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" on Tuesday that the gap between Washington and Tehran remains unbridgeable. "The difference between the two sides is so wide, it cannot be bridged," Fesharaki said.

He pointed to the core dispute: the U.S. wants Iran's enriched nuclear material — uranium processed to higher purity levels — moved out of the country, and Iran will not agree to that condition. Fesharaki's view contrasts with the market's current positioning, which prices in a meaningful probability of de-escalation.

What is the outlook for prices?

The immediate direction of crude now hinges on whether the diplomatic channel Trump described produces tangible results. A durable agreement could push Brent closer to its pre-conflict levels near $60, where the benchmark began the year. A collapse in talks, by contrast, would likely restore the supply-risk premium that lifted Brent to $130 at the height of strikes in March and April.

For now, the market has taken the president at his word. Tuesday's close below $90 represents the first test of that conviction since August.