Net profits of companies listed on Vietnam's main exchange will grow about 24% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, the slowest rate since the third quarter of 2025, according to a forecast by VDSC, the securities arm of Rong Viet.

The projection marks a sharp deceleration from the third quarter, when profit after tax attributable to parent company shareholders of businesses on the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HoSE) rose 53% over the same period last year. VDSC said the third-quarter result reflected a broadly positive economy, with key industry groups — banking, construction, materials, industrial parks and technology — all sustaining positive growth.

Which sectors drove the third-quarter surge?

Real estate companies delivered the strongest improvement, with profits up 32%, boosted by large contributions from Vingroup and Vinhomes. Banking ranked second in growth momentum at 10%. Retail business results continued to rise, while technology, chemicals and securities companies came under downward pressure.

VDSC did not disclose absolute profit figures for the quarter. The percentages alone frame the pattern: property and banks carried the market, and weaker technology, chemicals and brokerage results offset part of those gains.

Why does the fourth quarter slow to 24%?

Two forces compress the growth rate. First, the comparison base is high, particularly in industries tied to goods and retail — a view shared by SSI Research, which independently forecasts a fourth-quarter slowdown for the same reason.

Second, some companies that have already exceeded their full-year profit plans after nine months may raise expense provisions in the final quarter, SSI Research said. Provisions are accounting charges set aside against future costs or risks; booking them in a strong year dampens reported profit.

Where will fourth-quarter growth come from?

Despite the slower headline number, VDSC expects two segments to act as the market's engines. Non-financial companies and insurers are both projected to post profit improvements of more than 40%. Banks should maintain high stability with growth rates above double digits, the broker said.

Consumer goods and retail represent a more nuanced case. These industries continue to benefit from rising commodity prices rather than improved output volumes, according to VDSC, and the group's profit margin (the share of revenue retained as profit) may peak around mid-2026.

Energy stands out as an expected outperformer. The group, driven mainly by thermal power, is set to record high profit growth as both electricity consumption and selling prices remain elevated, VDSC said.

What happened to oil and gas?

The oil and gas group, dominated by upstream and midstream companies — those operating in extraction and the processing and transport that follows it — reported profits below estimates, mainly because of large costs. VDSC judged these costs as more one-time than structural, implying limited drag on future quarters.

The same sector carries a built-in fourth-quarter catalyst. VDSC said a large volume of work and high maintenance costs will drive the group's revenue and profit growth in the fourth quarter, as servicing activity converts into billings.

What is the strategic read for executives?

The 24% figure, if realized, still represents robust expansion by regional standards, but the direction matters as much as the level. Growth has halved from 53% to a forecast 24% within two quarters, driven by base effects, provisions and cost shocks in energy rather than a deterioration in underlying demand.

For corporate planners, the sequencing matters: consumer-facing margins peaking around mid-2026, insurance and non-financial profits expanding above 40%, and banks holding double-digit growth together sketch a market rotating from property-led to more broadly based earnings. Thermal power's tailwind from high electricity prices and consumption adds a further, energy-side pillar to fourth-quarter results.