By Amara Osei

Vietnamese banks cut their US dollar trading prices by 150-200 VND on the evening of November 5, producing the sharpest decrease in a month. The adjustment pushed the bank channel (commercial-bank foreign exchange quotations) to a 21-month low; rates last traded below 25,000 VND in February 2025.

What changed at VietinBank and Vietcombank?

At 7 p.m., VietinBank listed the dollar buying price at about 25,255 VND, 80 VND below the previous close and 190 VND below the morning quote. The bank also reduced its selling price by about 100 VND, to 25,795 VND.

Vietcombank adjusted its rates throughout the afternoon before finalizing a buying price of 25,390 VND and a selling price of 25,800 VND. Its 110 VND decline from the previous day was the sharpest since early October. VietinBank and Vietcombank therefore ended with nearly identical selling quotes at 25,795 VND and 25,800 VND.

How widely did private-bank rates move?

Many private banks made more than 20 price adjustments during the session, with Eximbank making as many as 42. Across this group, banks bought each dollar for approximately 25,130-25,400 VND, about 100 VND below the prior day, while selling dollars at around 25,800 VND after a similar reduction.

Both sides of the bank market moved lower. VietinBank cut its selling price by about 100 VND, and Vietcombank's final range declined 110 VND.

What drove the decline?

The adjustment primarily reflected a weaker USD Index, a benchmark that measures the dollar against a basket of major currencies. The index fell close to 101.2 points, its lowest level in about a month, after the Democratic Party won control of both houses of the US Congress in the midterm elections.

Investors believe the election result may limit the government's ability to enlarge the budget deficit, defined as spending above revenue. A smaller deficit could reduce US government bond yields, meaning returns on government debt, and pull the dollar lower.

Why did central-bank pricing move less?

Commercial-bank exchange rates have recently fluctuated more sharply than the reference rate, the daily central benchmark announced by the State Bank. On November 5, the State Bank listed that rate at 25,263 VND, down only 4 VND.

The 150-200 VND reductions at commercial banks therefore contrasted with a 4 VND decline in the central benchmark. At 25,263 VND, the State Bank rate remained close to VietinBank's 25,255 VND buying price, illustrating the different scales of the two measures.

Currency exchange points, outlets trading foreign currency outside banks, bought and sold dollars around 26,000-26,200 VND. Their quotes stood about 400 VND above bank rates, leaving cash trading at a distinct premium to the roughly 25,130-25,800 VND banking range.

Where do analysts expect USD/VND to go?

Analysts assess the USD/VND pairing, meaning Vietnamese dong per US dollar, as stable in the short term despite its recent decline. UOB Bank's analysis team placed the fourth-quarter rate at 26,300 VND and projected 26,600 VND in the first quarter of next year, followed by 26,800 VND in the second quarter.

MB Securities Company forecast a year-end range of 26,800-27,000 VND. UOB's second-quarter projection of 26,800 VND matched the lower bound of that year-end range.

The institutional estimates point to stability in the immediate market, followed by a higher quoted rate over the coming quarters. UOB's path moves from 26,300 VND in the fourth quarter to 26,800 VND in the second, while MB Securities' forecast sits at or above UOB's endpoint.