UK retail sales rose 1.5% year on year (against the same month a year earlier) in October, but shoppers held back big-ticket purchases, leaving retailers reliant on Black Friday to offset mounting costs.

The British Retail Consortium (BRC) reported the gain, slightly below 1.6% growth in the year to October 2025, while KPMG produced the underlying retail sales figures.

What held back consumer spending?

The BRC’s October data showed that performance varied sharply across product categories:

• Food sales grew 3.2%, slowing from 3.5% a year earlier but remaining above the three-month average growth of 3%.
• Halloween fell on a Saturday, lifting spending on snacks, costumes and decorations.
• Interest in big-ticket furniture stayed below normal because shoppers were saving for Black Friday later in the month.

The government’s advice to stock up on tinned food and bottled water also raised demand for cupboard staples, the BRC said. Retailers said the advice caught them off guard, prompting fears that a rush on shops could cause shortages of essentials.

Marks & Spencer boss Stuart Machin said the stock-up advice had worsened consumer sentiment by making shoppers more worried. That reaction matters because retailers were already counting on shoppers to release delayed spending during the promotional and festive period.

The BRC’s account describes a split market: seasonal goods and staples drew demand, while furniture purchases waited for discounts. Food growth of 3.2%, against 1.5% for retail sales overall, confirms that the sector remained uneven rather than weak across every category.

What costs are squeezing retailers?

BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson framed the near-term opportunity as pent-up demand, meaning purchases postponed until a later buying window:

“Retailers are hoping pent-up demand translates into stronger spending through November and December, as they work hard to deliver great choice and value for households this Christmas,” she said.

Dickinson said shoppers and businesses face mounting costs, including rising interest rates and energy bills, which add to pressure already pushing up prices. She called for faster government action to cut taxes and regulations that make it harder for retailers to hold prices down.

Retail executives had hoped last month’s Budget, the government’s tax-and-spending statement, would support them on energy bills and employment costs. Instead, they were angered by John Healey’s claim to have frozen business rates, a tax on commercial property, for high-street firms, because the levy will still rise in line with inflation.

That mismatch matters. Energy and employment costs add to retailer overheads, while higher rates and household bills restrain demand, leaving modest sales growth to absorb several cost increases at once.

Can the festive season close the gap?

Linda Ellett, KPMG’s UK head of consumer markets, said falling temperatures prompted shoppers to turn to cosy essentials such as duvets in October. Her reading separates weather effects from consumer confidence: seasonal cold supported demand for warm products, while household costs, pre-Budget caution and deal-seeking limited overall growth.

“But with consumers facing higher household costs, caution ahead of the Budget, and some waiting for Black Friday deals, overall sales growth was modest,” Ellett said.

Ellett nevertheless welcomed the increase, saying the retail sector desperately needs strong sales to offset cost increases as the promotional and festive season gets into full swing.

Dickinson and Ellett’s assessments point to one route: delayed spending must become stronger November and December purchases if retailers are to offset rising costs. October’s 1.5% overall sales growth and 3.2% food sales growth provide a modest base, while trading remains exposed to higher household bills, interest rates, energy costs and the business-rates dispute.

Black Friday will test whether postponed demand converts into volume. Without strong promotional and festive sales, retailers will have less scope to absorb rising energy, employment, tax and regulatory costs, while households continue to face pressure from higher bills and prices.

The sector enters its peak period with modest growth, no sought-after Budget relief and a tougher cost base. Stronger festive trading must now do more than lift headline sales; it must help retailers offset those pressures.