OPEC crude production rose by roughly 1.97 million barrels per day in October, lifting the group's total output to about 27.16 million bpd, according to the cartel's latest monthly report. Saudi Arabia and Iraq drove nearly all of the increase. For oil executives and trading desks, the numbers confirm that supply is expanding faster than most demand scenarios currently assume.

Saudi Arabia posted the largest monthly gain, adding 1.18 million bpd to reach approximately 9.19 million bpd. Iraq followed, raising output by 496,000 bpd to 4.49 million bpd, while Kuwait increased production by 232,000 bpd to around 2 million bpd.

Smaller producers also grew:

• UAE: up 91,000 bpd to 4.01 million bpd
• Libya: up 36,000 bpd to 1.33 million bpd
• Venezuela: up 11,000 bpd to 1.16 million bpd
• Gabon: up 5,000 bpd to 212,000 bpd

Not every member moved higher. Iran recorded the steepest decline, with production falling 44,000 bpd to roughly 1.91 million bpd. Congo slipped 15,000 bpd to 270,000 bpd, Algeria dropped 2,000 bpd to around 1 million bpd, and Equatorial Guinea lost 1,000 bpd to 44,000 bpd.

Where does Nigeria stand?

Nigeria produced 1.513 million bpd in October, keeping output above the 1.5 million bpd threshold that has become the country's practical benchmark for stability. The same report, using its secondary-source estimates, put the decline at 27,000 bpd to 1.54 million bpd — a discrepancy that reflects the gap between direct communication and independent assessment.

The strategic picture matters more than the monthly wiggle. Nigeria is stepping up exploration to more than double its oil and gas reserves, with deepwater basins identified as the key growth opportunity. For service contractors and upstream investors, that signals licensing rounds and drilling programs rather than a return to quiet maintenance mode.

What did the wider OPEC+ bloc do?

The OPEC+ alliance, which adds several non-OPEC producers to the cartel's members, also raised output in October. Total production climbed by approximately 2.04 million bpd to average 41.23 million bpd for the month. The wider bloc grew slightly more than OPEC proper, meaning non-OPEC partners added barrels on top of the Saudi and Iraqi surge.

What does OPEC expect for demand?

OPEC held its global oil demand growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 unchanged from the previous month's assessment. For 2026, the group expects global demand to rise by 180,000 bpd year-on-year, averaging 105.72 million bpd. Within that total, non-OECD demand climbs 410,000 bpd to 59.62 million bpd, while OECD demand falls 230,000 bpd to 46.10 million bpd.

The 2027 outlook turns markedly stronger. OPEC forecasts global demand growing by a further 2.55 million bpd to average approximately 108.28 million bpd — an acceleration more than fourteen times the 2026 increment. Non-OECD countries carry the load again, with demand up 2.01 million bpd to 61.63 million bpd, but OECD demand also recovers, adding 540,000 bpd to reach 46.64 million bpd.

The combination matters for planning. Supply rose nearly 2 million bpd in a single month while 2026 demand growth is forecast at just 180,000 bpd. Refiners buying crude in coming quarters face a well-supplied market; producers betting on the 2027 demand surge are placing a considerably larger wager than this year's numbers justify.