Net international migration into the United States is set to collapse from 2.7 million people in 2024 to a projected 321,000 in 2026 — a swing that removes roughly half the country's usual source of job growth and hands employers a structural hiring problem.

That figure, from the Census Bureau, sits at the center of a broader demographic squeeze economists have long called the "Great People Shortage." The US population is still growing, but the ground is shifting in ways that will reshape the economy long before the head count falls.

What do the numbers actually say?

The Congressional Budget Office expects the US population to peak at 364 million in 2056 before it starts to decline. The fertility rate crested in 2007 and is unlikely to rebound soon, so fewer people are reaching adulthood and joining the labor force.

The Trump administration is accelerating the shift by making it harder for foreigners to enter the country, closing one of the main buffers against a workforce that is getting smaller and older. The White House has undertaken mass deportations, cracked down on border crossings, revoked thousands of student and worker visas, and ended protections for hundreds of thousands of people from countries such as Venezuela and Haiti.

Net migration tells the story in three data points:

• 2.7 million in 2024, under the Biden administration
• 1.3 million in 2025
• 321,000 expected in 2026

"Immigration is usually about half our job growth," said Pia Orrenius, a labor economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Fewer arrivals mean lower output, slower growth and weaker demand, because immigrants are consumers as well as workers.

Orrenius points to Texas, which is in the midst of a manufacturing boom and building out data centers. Slow-growing regions may barely notice the change, she said. In Texas, by contrast, "we grow fast, and we depend on immigrants and migrants from other states to fuel that growth."

How bad is the tourism slump?

Foreign visitors are staying away, compounding the demographic drag. Tensions with Canada, plus rising costs inside the US, have produced steep declines in inbound travel, according to Leigh Barnes, North America president of Intrepid Travel:

• 67% fewer Canadians traveling to the US from 2025 to 2026
• 30% fewer visitors from Australia and New Zealand
• 24% fewer from Europe, the Middle East and Africa

Barnes attributed the Canadian drop-off to a "visceral" response to Trump's stance toward their home country, while Australian and British visitors are more deterred by financial pressures at home and higher US prices. Once tourists arrive, he said, they often discover "everyone's bloody lovely" — the problem is nerves at the border. "It's that trepidation and concern coming into the border," he said.

Who wins and who loses?

The result will be an uneven demographic era rather than a uniform decline. Cities and attractions dependent on international tourism will take a hit. Some colleges will absorb the drop in international students or entice enough domestic applicants; others will struggle to survive.

The competition for scarce young people is complicated by reduced domestic mobility. "People are just a little less footloose," said William Frey, a demographer and senior fellow at Brookings Metro. More rural areas will empty out because they cannot match the jobs and amenities of populated regions.

Aging is the constant. "That's probably a bigger, broader concern," Frey said. Baby boomers are exiting the workforce without enough young workers to backfill their jobs, replace their tax dollars, or staff the long-term care they will need.

What does it mean for workers and companies?

For workers entering the labor market around 2040, the picture is not bleak, said Steven Ruggles, a regents professor of history at the University of Minnesota. They will face a "pretty darn good" labor market, with companies competing for scarce staff through stronger job prospects and higher pay.

"When the baby boomers entered the labor market, the labor unions disintegrated because they no longer had any bargaining power because workers were a dime a dozen," Ruggles said. The flip side: employers will squeeze more from every hire. "If there's a shortage of workers, you expect there to be a lot of incentive for companies to adopt labor-saving devices like AI and other things that increase productivity," he said.

One open question is how sticky current conditions are. The immigration slowdown under Trump is not permanent, just as the surge under Biden was not; policies on green cards, student visas and enforcement will likely shift with the political winds, and tourism may bounce back. Low birth rates and an aging population are far less likely to change. America's economic future depends on how the country adjusts to an older, less mobile population — and on how leaders choose to fill the gaps.