Sophie Lindqvist

More than 90% of South Africa’s international air cargo moves through Gauteng’s OR Tambo International Airport, concentrating national trade resilience in a single gateway. That structure creates efficiencies, but it also leaves any airport disruption with the potential to affect exporters and importers nationwide.

At the same time, the strategic case for air freight is unusually well documented. The International Air Transport Association’s 2025 report, Air Cargo, Trade and Economic Growth in 2025, calls air cargo a “structural component of global economic resilience.”

Air cargo helped absorb tariff shocks, restructure supply chains and sustain 2.4% global trade and 3.2% global GDP (gross domestic product) growth, according to the report. With US tariffs at their highest since the 1930s, companies accelerated imports; air freight became the logistics mode of choice, moving goods representing 82% of the value transported by air. The data show macro value, not operator profitability.

What does this change for South African exporters?

For exporters competing on delivery speed and reliability, air cargo offers a practical alternative when maritime routes, supplier networks or established corridors are disrupted. The gain remains conditional because OR Tambo still handles more than 90% of international cargo, and one hub does not create supply-chain resilience (the ability to keep trading through disruption).

The recently developed Airfreight Strategy for South Africa places diversification at the centre of future competitiveness. Strengthening cargo capabilities at Cape Town International Airport and King Shaka International Airport would add redundancy and flexibility, although no capacity targets, costs or implementation timetable accompany those proposals.

Where can route diversification create an advantage?

South Africa remains heavily dependent on traditional European and Middle Eastern gateways. The strategy points instead toward Southeast Asia, South America, BRICS economies (a grouping of major emerging economies) and African markets linked through the African Continental Free Trade Area.

The strategy rejects dependence on a limited number of markets, suppliers and transport corridors. Adding routes matters only if they create usable alternatives rather than entries on a map, with alternative pathways able to preserve trade when established corridors face Red Sea shipping disruptions, port congestion, geopolitical tensions, pandemics or climate-related events.

Can air freight absorb larger shocks?

During the Covid-19 pandemic, air cargo served as a critical air bridge for medical supplies, pharmaceuticals and essential goods when other transport modes were constrained. The same pattern emerged during Red Sea shipping disruptions and severe port congestion, with air freight acting as a pressure valve against broader supply-chain failures.

That record supports the resilience thesis, but no South African cost, capacity or profit analysis accompanies the case. It therefore demonstrates past utility rather than proving that the country can finance or scale the response.

What does the technology trade signal?

Artificial intelligence (AI) adds a newer demand signal. In 2025, more than two-thirds of global AI-related trade by value moved through air cargo, reflecting demand for the speed, security and flexibility required by servers, memory chips, data storage equipment and other high-value technology products.

The statistic measures trade value, not shipment counts, margins or South Africa’s market share. It still indicates why AI supply chains could strengthen air-freight demand, provided local infrastructure and routes can handle that trade.

What infrastructure must South Africa prioritise?

The Airfreight Strategy for South Africa and related industry research make four investment priorities explicit for strengthening the country’s position as a regional logistics gateway. They are:

• Airport cargo infrastructure.
• Cold-chain capacity (temperature-controlled storage and handling).
• Cargo-handling technology.
• Airfreight facilities.

Policy alone cannot deliver those upgrades, and no funding envelope or delivery schedule accompanies the priorities. Rapid e-commerce growth and time-sensitive exports increase the stakes because exporters now compete on product quality as well as delivery speed and reliability. That leaves the infrastructure diagnosis stronger than the implementation case.

What should decision-makers do next?

The practical decision is to treat Cape Town and King Shaka cargo development, route diversification and cold-chain investment as one resilience programme. That would give exporters alternatives when OR Tambo or established corridors are impaired, rather than leaving the country dependent on a single gateway.

Yet the case leaves key delivery questions unanswered: capital costs, freight capacity, airline commitments, service frequencies and measurable targets for traffic outside OR Tambo. Without those details, diversification remains an attractive proposition rather than a proven national advantage.