South African agricultural exports to China reached R3.95bn in the second quarter of 2026, a rise of 30.1% year on year, as Beijing's zero-tariff programme began to offset the approaching loss of preferential access to the United States. The figure, drawn from TradeMap data, makes China the fourth-largest destination for South African farm exports in the quarter.

The growth matters because United States authorities have confirmed the termination of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), the preferential trade scheme granting African goods duty-free entry to the US market, with effect from January 2027. South African agricultural exports to the United States fell to R2.1bn in Q2 2026, a decline of 28% year on year, leaving America as only the tenth-largest destination.

China's zero-tariff programme came into effect in May 2026, meaning two months of the quarter operated under the new terms. Analysts caution that the period is too short to draw a firm causal link, yet the direction of trade is clear. The net effect of lower US sales and combined growth in exports to China, the Middle East and Vietnam is positive.

What does the zero-tariff programme change?

Before the programme, South African agricultural exports to China faced a most favoured nation (MFN) tariff rate — the standard tariff a country applies to World Trade Organization members without a preferential deal — of 10%. Exporters also confronted strict phytosanitary and regulatory hurdles, including lengthy sanitary checks, complex protocols and product registration delays.

The zero-tariff policy eliminates the 10% MFN tariff entirely and improves South African competitiveness in the Chinese market. Non-tariff barriers remain in place, and exporters must still comply with China's phytosanitary requirements and other regulations. The arrangement is therefore unlikely to disrupt local South African production through import competition, a distinction officials regard as significant. Negotiations are under way for a reciprocal trade arrangement after April 2028.

How significant is China as a buyer?

In 2025, China ranked seventh among destinations for South African agricultural exports, accounting for 4.6% of total exports by value. The leaders were:

• Netherlands: 12.2%
• Zimbabwe: 7.7%
• United Kingdom: 7.3%
• Mozambique: 5.7%
• Namibia: 5.6%
• Botswana: 5.6%

The 2025 export basket to China consisted of nuts at 30.5%, wool at 28.4% and macadamias at 11.4%. Other major commodities included citrus fruit, deciduous fruit, raw animal hides, wine, beef, fresh grapes and other fruits. This profile closely mirrors South Africa's exports to the United States, which means the same products face disruption when Agoa terminates.

Which products gain most from tariff-free access?

Wine and macadamias stand out as the clearest beneficiaries. Wine previously carried a 20% tariff in China and macadamias 10%; both now enter duty-free. Zero-tariff access strengthens the price position of these products against competitors still paying MFN rates.

The Chinese market holds the potential to absorb exports that would otherwise have gone to the United States under Agoa, according to the assessment. South African authorities view the shift as part of a broader export diversification strategy prompted by uncertain American trade policy.

Is diversification working beyond China?

The Q2 2026 data points to gains across Asia and the Middle East as well. Exports to Vietnam reached R2.1bn, up 152.6% year on year, and exports to Saudi Arabia reached R1.65bn, up 90.1% over the same period. Both results support the diversification drive under way among South African trade authorities.

The question for the longer term is whether China can serve as a durable substitute for the US market after January 2027. Two months of zero-tariff trade offer encouragement rather than proof. What the data already establishes is that the tariff removal has improved competitiveness, that the export profile fits the Chinese demand pattern, and that the combined growth across China, Vietnam and the Middle East currently outweighs the contraction in American sales.