By Elena Vasquez

What changed in October?

Vietnam’s new-vehicle market contracted 24% in October 2026, falling to 28,957 units from 37,910 a year earlier, data from the Vietnam Automotive Manufacturers Association showed. October volume fell by 8,953 units, or nearly one-quarter of the year-earlier total.

The auto contraction ran against official economic data. Government figures showed gross domestic product growth accelerating to almost 10% year on year in the third quarter, up from an upwardly revised 8.8% in the second quarter. The government said all sectors of the economy were performing strongly.

VAMA’s series covers retail sales by association members and imported vehicles sold by non-members. It excludes locally assembled vehicles from non-member companies, specifically VinFast and Hyundai, so the headline total does not capture those makers’ domestic output.

This scope matters for the company figures below, which do not form a single, directly comparable market-share table.

How strong is the market beyond October?

The first ten months remained positive despite the October drop. VAMA said total new-vehicle sales rose 7.5% to 310,986 units from 289,331 a year earlier, adding 21,655 vehicles. VAMA attributed the expansion to strong, broad-based economic growth.

October accounted for 28,957 of the ten-month total, or 9.3%, leaving the market with a positive year-to-date result. Growth split across two categories:

• Light passenger vehicle sales increased 5% to 212,107 units from 202,204, a gain of 9,903.
• Commercial vehicle sales rose more than 13% to 98,879 from 87,127, an increase of 11,752.

Commercial vehicles supplied 11,752 of the market’s 21,655 additional year-to-date units, or 54% of the net gain. Passenger vehicles still represented 68% of total volume, but the faster commercial segment turned a 5% passenger-vehicle gain into a 7.5% market increase.

Who gained and lost sales?

Local automotive group Truong Hai increased sales 8% to 75,656 units in the first ten months, 15,546 more than Toyota’s reported total. Performance split sharply across its brands:

• Kia sales rose 32% to 26,546 units, while Mazda gained 2% to 25,154.
• Thaco commercial vehicle sales fell more than 3% to 21,191 units.

Other major manufacturers reported mixed results:

• Toyota sales rose 8% to 60,110 units, while Mitsubishi gained 13% to reach 34,111.
• Ford sold 32,914 units, down 15%, and Honda sold 17,594, down 17%.
• VinFast separately reported domestic battery electric vehicle sales up 61% to 200,593.
• Hyundai’s sales fell 5% to 38,834.

The reported gains concentrated in Kia, Mitsubishi and VinFast, which posted increases of 32%, 13% and 61%, respectively. Ford, Honda, Thaco and Hyundai declined by 15%, 17%, more than 3% and 5%, respectively.

Because VinFast and Hyundai fall outside VAMA’s series, their company figures should not be added to VAMA’s 310,986-unit total or used to calculate comparable market shares. VinFast’s 200,593 domestic BEV sales also cover a narrower product set than VAMA’s combined passenger and commercial vehicle total.

What could support the year-end outcome?

The Vietnamese government confirmed that it will extend the current registration-tax exemption and preferential consumption-tax measures for battery electric vehicles until 2030. Both measures faced expiration in February 2027, so the decision removes that deadline and provides roughly three years of policy continuity for BEV buyers and manufacturers.

GlobalData expects total light-vehicle sales in Vietnam to rise 14% to 641,000 units in 2026, after a 20% increase to 562,000 in 2025. The estimate adds 79,000 vehicles and, on a simple annual average, equates to about 53,400 light-vehicle sales a month, compared with 46,800 in 2025. GlobalData cited continued strong economic growth and rising consumer demand.

That forecast points to a much stronger full-year market than October’s 24% contraction alone would imply. Because GlobalData forecasts light vehicles while VAMA reports a combined passenger-and-commercial market with specific membership exclusions, the 641,000 estimate and VAMA’s 310,986 ten-month total are not directly interchangeable.

The tax extension secures the BEV policy framework through 2030, but the 14% forecast still requires the market to deliver the stronger year-end pace embedded in the 641,000-unit estimate.