By Sophie Lindqvist

Nigeria will not restore the petrol subsidy, President Bola Tinubu said on Tuesday, directing government resources instead toward agriculture and education.

The statement came at the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential campaign rally in Jigawa State. Tinubu dismissed claims that his administration would revive the direct fuel subsidy (government support used to reduce what motorists pay at the pump).

Tinubu told supporters: “To those who said subsidy is coming back, it’s a lie. Don’t let them lie to you again. It’s not going to come back. We cannot spend the future of our children today and feel that they will own tomorrow.”

His argument was intergenerational: public money should build productive capacity rather than consume resources needed by later generations. He said the government would channel spending into education and agriculture, and would support farmers seeking higher agricultural productivity (farming output). That is a stated priority, not evidence of delivery; no budget, timetable or performance target accompanied either commitment.

Against that policy shift, Tinubu set out a four-part farming programme. Its announced elements were:

• Subsidise farming.
• Reward small-scale farmers.
• Provide interest-free loans (credit carrying no interest charge).
• Establish mechanised farming service centres (local facilities providing access to modern agricultural equipment) across six geographical locations.

He said the centres would improve farming operations, increase food production and strengthen farmers’ livelihoods. Tinubu also linked the programme to food security (reliable access to sufficient food): “Prosperity is coming. Food security will happen. I hope you hear me.”

The promise remains untested. The speech did not identify the six locations, release a budget, set a launch date, cap loan amounts or define who qualifies. Nor did Tinubu explain how the proposed subsidies and interest-free credit would be financed or compare their cost with the fuel subsidy.

What does this change for farmers and fuel buyers?

For fuel buyers, the immediate policy signal is clear: restoration of direct fuel support is not part of the government’s stated plan. It is not a pump-price forecast, however, because Tinubu announced no price adjustment, offsetting tax measure or timetable for filling-station costs.

For small-scale farmers, the expected benefit now rests on targeted agriculture measures rather than a restored fuel subsidy. Delivery, not announcement, will determine whether those measures improve operations and household incomes. Businesses financing or supplying the agricultural sector should therefore treat the proposals as contingent until funding and eligibility rules appear.

On insecurity, Tinubu acknowledged the security challenges confronting Nigeria. He urged residents to work with security agencies, share information, promptly report suspicious activities, treat neighbours as friends and partners, and avoid withholding information useful to investigators. The appeal assumes public co-operation can improve intelligence and response; the speech offered no metric for either.

Tinubu said his administration was working to restore peace and safety nationwide. He said security personnel were receiving improved welfare packages, including better salaries, housing and rewards, and that the police and armed forces had been strengthened to confront threats. No figures or deadlines accompanied those claims, leaving their scale and effect unmeasurable from the remarks alone.

He also said Nigeria had been through many wars and would defeat its enemies, whom he described as threats to unity, stability and hope. That confidence rests on improved force capacity and resident reporting, but Tinubu did not specify the operations, resources or milestones required to achieve the outcome.

The strategic trade-off is explicit: Tinubu tells Nigerians that fuel support will not return while his government redirects spending toward farming and education. Whether that trade-off proves credible depends on measurable spending, timely service centres, functioning loans and better security outcomes, none of which the campaign speech demonstrated.