Nigeria's upstream regulator has classified three oil and gas wells as "very high risk" out of 28 screened near gas seepage sites in Bille community, Rivers State, with forensic fingerprinting results not expected until the fourth quarter of 2026. Ten more wells were rated high risk. The remaining 15 fell into a medium-to-low risk category.

The update came via a special technical paper delivered Thursday at the 44th Annual International Conference and Exhibition of the Nigerian Association of Petroleum Explorationists (NAPE). The paper carried the title "Unravelling Gas Seepage and Bubbling in Nigeria: The Integrated Study Approach Towards Source Attribution."

Engr. Joseph Ogunsola, director of Subsurface Development at the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), said the Commission had constituted a dedicated team to establish the cause of the seepage. He described gas seepage as a new phenomenon in the Nigerian petroleum industry. Azibamikiomam John-Adumo, senior manager of Onshore Frontier Development Drilling and a geologist, presented the paper on Ogunsola's behalf.

What does the seepage investigation change for Bille?

For residents, the stakes are unusually high. Ogunsola warned that if the seepage proves to be a natural geological phenomenon, communities may have to be relocated. "If the seepage is a natural geologic phenomenon, the people may need to be evacuated because tracing the migration pathways and designing subsurface interventions may be much more challenging," he said. A well operator facing a leaking wellhead can repair it; nobody can cap a natural migration route with existing ease.

The first seepage was observed in October 2025. "The investigation has progressed from the first reported bubble to an independent fingerprinting campaign within 12 months," Ogunsola said. That timeline is the Commission's own account of pace; the attribution itself remains open.

How is the regulator testing the gas?

The independent investigation uses Gas Chromatography-Isotope Ratio Mass Spectrometry (GC-IRMS), a technique that reads the isotopic signature of gas molecules to identify their geological origin, alongside compositional field analysis. Results are due in Q4 2026 — meaning the affected communities face at least another year without a definitive answer.

The NUPRC is working to establish whether the gas originates from one specific well or from other nearby wells. One suspect well was originally drilled in search of oil and was shut down after finding gas instead. It sits approximately 2.5 kilometres from the seepage location. The other wells in the area sit between 2.5 and three kilometres away. Ogunsola noted the area is highly explored and hydrocarbon-charged, as the density of nearby wells demonstrates.

What did the field teams find?

Under the wells workstream — part of the facility and infrastructure component of the probe — the team screened 28 wells based on their proximity to the seepage sites and the reservoirs (the porous rock layers containing hydrocarbons) traversed during drilling. The findings:

• 3 wells rated very high risk
• 10 wells rated high risk
• 15 wells rated medium-to-low risk
• 14 wells physically visited by the investigation team
• 3 wells inaccessible because they were submerged

During the site visits, the team observed gas hissing from some wells. Some facilities were corroded. Others had been vandalised. Studies in one affected area, Ogunsola said, had helped unravel the structural threat.

What happens while answers are pending?

Ogunsola said the Commission and operators have mobilised relief materials and support for the affected communities. The package includes food supplies, medical outreach, efforts to provide potable water, fire vans and safety kits.

He said the Commission remains committed to a "speedy, coordinated and integrated" investigation to establish the seepage's source. What he did not specify is which operator, if any, bears interim responsibility for the three very high-risk wells, or who funds the relief effort. Those questions will likely define the commercial and legal fallout once the GC-IRMS results land in late 2026.