US motorists will pay record gasoline prices this Thanksgiving even as pump costs fall below $4 a gallon, according to GasBuddy's head of petroleum analysis, Patrick De Haan. "I don't think there's much ability for us to avoid this being the most expensive Thanksgiving on record," he told MarketWatch.

De Haan projects the national average (the mean retail price of regular gasoline across all US states) could drop to about $3.75 by Thanksgiving. Measured against GasBuddy data reaching back to 2000, that figure would exceed the prior Thanksgiving record of $3.56, set in 2022.

Where do prices stand now?

AAA's measure of the national average stood at roughly $4.01 early Monday. The motoring organization's data show that no November before this year had ever recorded a nationwide average above $4.

Prices fell in every state last week, GasBuddy reported. California posted the highest average, at $5.69 a gallon. North Carolina posted the lowest, at $3.23.

Why are prices coming down?

De Haan said in a statement that prices typically decline at this time of year because refiners finish seasonal maintenance and ramp up output, while demand fades with cooler weather. Cooler months reduce driving volumes, easing pressure on fuel inventories.

Geopolitics has added a second lever. De Haan told MarketWatch that President Donald Trump's remarks playing down the likelihood of a deeper military confrontation with Iran helped push oil and gasoline prices lower.

Trump said it was "highly unlikely" he would order extensive new strikes on Iran while negotiations continue, though he tied that position to Tehran signing a "very strong agreement." Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell about 16% last week.

What are oil markets doing?

In early Monday trade, West Texas Intermediate crude, the US benchmark, stood at $87.21 a barrel. Brent traded at $94.14, below the $100 mark for the first time since early October.

The retreat in crude underpins the projected slide in retail gasoline toward $3.75. Even so, that level remains historically elevated for late November, which is why the holiday record looks likely to fall despite the recent relief.

How does this feed inflation?

Higher fuel costs have been a driver of broader price growth. Gasoline pushed the annual inflation rate to 3.7% in September, a month when the Consumer Price Index (the government's headline measure of inflation) rose 0.6% and gasoline climbed 9.1% on the month.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release October CPI data on Tuesday. That report will show whether the recent drop in crude and pump prices has started to moderate the fuel-driven component of inflation.

What should travelers expect?

Drivers heading out for Thanksgiving face a national picture that has improved week by week but remains the costliest on record for the holiday. The spread between states is wide: California motorists pay $2.46 a gallon more than those in North Carolina, based on the latest GasBuddy state averages.

The trajectory depends heavily on oil markets. A further slide in Brent below $94.14 could pull the national average closer to De Haan's $3.75 projection; renewed tension over Iran could reverse the trend. Either way, the record from 2022 appears set to fall.