By Olivia Hart

Nigeria holds roughly 190 trillion cubic feet of gas — about 60 years of production at current rates — yet in early 2026 its thermal plants received less than half the fuel they needed to run at capacity. That gap between resource and delivery is the core finding of S&P Global Energy's assessment of West African electricity, and it reframes the region's power challenge for every operator, offtaker and investor in the market.

The report's verdict is blunt: West Africa's gas story is one of deliverability, not resource scarcity. Nigeria, Senegal, Mauritania, Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire all hold substantial reserves. What limits electricity-sector growth is whether upstream production, pipelines, LNG infrastructure and power generation develop in step.

Why gas-fired capacity anchors the regional grid

Gas-fired plants will remain central to incremental supply and system reliability across West Africa, S&P says, which makes fuel availability the binding constraint on power-sector expansion. Nigeria anchors that system. It hosts sub-Saharan Africa's most developed gas value chain, accounts for more than half of regional gas sales and ranks as Africa's largest LNG exporter outside North Africa.

The country also operates the region's most extensive transmission network, linking producing areas to industrial and power demand centers east and west. Two projects extend that reach: the Obiafu-Obrikom-Oben (OB3) interconnector will join the eastern and western networks, while the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK) pipeline is designed to feed planned generation and industrial demand in the north.

What happens when fuel fails to arrive?

The Nigerian Independent System Operator reported in early 2026 that thermal plants were receiving under half their required gas volumes, forcing unit shutdowns and depressing generation. When deliveries recovered, output rose almost immediately — proof, the report argues, that molecules in the ground mean little without payment discipline, contractual performance and market liquidity at the power station gate.

Competition for those molecules is intensifying. International oil companies typically prefer LNG export projects, which deliver higher netbacks from global prices plus foreign exchange and tax revenue. Nigeria's LNG export sector is expanding rapidly, several recent upstream developments are directed toward LNG feedgas, and floating LNG proposals remain under discussion — tightening the balance among exports, domestic demand and regional pipeline ambitions.

Can LNG imports fill the gap?

Senegal answered that question in 2025, becoming sub-Saharan Africa's first LNG importer even as it started exporting through the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim FLNG project shared with Mauritania. Imported LNG now supports power generation around Dakar, where domestic gas is not yet piped to demand centers. The model could spread to countries where discoveries sit far from population clusters or where projected gas-to-power demand exceeds reserves. The trade-off: imported LNG ties buyers to international prices, adding affordability risks and foreign-currency payment constraints.

How does regional integration work in practice?

Gas infrastructure, S&P argues, performs the same integrating function as cross-border power transmission. The 569-kilometer West African Gas Pipeline has supplied Nigerian gas to Benin, Togo and Ghana since 2010, underpinning their generation. Throughput keeps rising in 2026 as power and industrial demand grows, but the line still runs below full capacity — historically constrained as much by contractual and payment issues as by steel in the ground.

Ghana shows how the market is maturing. After developing its offshore gas resources, Ghana turned the pipeline into a bidirectional, open-access system: Ghanaian gas now flows east when needed, and imports flow west when required. Countries increasingly act as both suppliers and consumers.

Electricity trade adds a second layer. Togo and Benin already depend on imports, while Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire and Nigeria supply neighboring markets. Interconnections cut exposure to domestic generation constraints and shore up reserves during tight periods — but traded power must be deliverable, not merely contracted. Transmission availability, dispatch coordination and payment discipline decide whether cross-border flows hold up under stress.

What comes next?

The proposed African Atlantic Gas Pipeline would extend the integration logic along the entire coast: Benin, Togo, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Gambia, Senegal and Mauritania, terminating in Morocco, with potential links to landlocked Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. Framed as a regional development initiative rather than an export route, it would expand market access and strengthen energy security.

Like the West African Power Pool, such pipelines demand common rules on tariffs, transit, taxation and dispute resolution. For practitioners, the signal is clear: the next tranche of West African power growth will be won on contracts and coordination, not on drilling.