S&P 500 futures move 2.2 times as much in the hour a producer-price report lands as in an ordinary hour — but consumer-price data still moves them 3.8 times, a study of 32 PPI releases found. The next PPI print is due Friday, 13 November, at 13:30 UTC.

SignalPilot Labs measured every PPI report from February 2024 to October 2026 — 32 in all, each released at 08:30 New York. For each report the firm took the one-hour candle the release landed in on TradingView and measured its high-to-low range in percent. That range was compared against the same New York hour on the 20 preceding weekdays with no major release, making 1.00 the benchmark for an ordinary hour. The markets covered were S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures on the CME, the dollar index, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, gold and Bitcoin. The question was declared on 17 October, before a single PPI hour had been computed.

Which markets move most on PPI day?

The median PPI hour beat an ordinary hour in every market tracked:

• S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures led at 2.16 times normal
• The dollar index followed at 2.11
• USD/JPY at 1.93 and EUR/USD at 1.90
• Bitcoin and gold trailed at 1.41 and 1.39

Most individual PPI hours also beat an ordinary one. The dollar index did so on 31 of 32 reports, the stock futures on 30, and gold on 24. CPI, measured the same way, moved S&P 500 futures 3.81 times, the dollar index 3.36 and Bitcoin 2.32 — meaning PPI moves the same markets a little over half as much as CPI.

Did the pattern hold over time?

The study split the 32 reports into halves afterwards, a check that had not been declared in advance. In each half the stock futures stayed near the top while Bitcoin and gold stayed at the bottom. From February 2024 to May 2025 the S&P 500 led at 2.5 times. From June 2025 to October 2026 the Nasdaq 100 led at 2.2. Over the last 12 months the gap narrowed, with Bitcoin at 1.53 and gold at 1.51.

What did the chart show?

S&P 500 futures from 13 to 16 October 2026 illustrate the gap, with the 12:00 UTC hour shaded on each day. CPI's hour on the 14th ranged 0.73%. PPI's hour on the 15th ranged 0.35% — about twice an ordinary 12:00 candle — and Retail Sales came out in the same minute. On the two ordinary days, the same hour moved just 0.10% and 0.11%.

What does the study not tell you?

Direction, for one: the measurement captures the size of the hour, not which way prices go. Half the PPI hours moved less than the medians reported, and 32 reports is a small sample. The authors ran no luck test, since nothing in the analysis claims a rule.

Contamination is another caveat. Ten of the 32 reports shared their hour with another release — Retail Sales five times and European Central Bank decisions five times. Excluding those ten, the stock futures still led, with S&P 500 futures at 2.34 times an ordinary hour.

The study covers past data and offers observations, not recommendations.

By Elena Vasquez