OPEC has held its global oil demand growth forecasts unchanged for the first time after a series of downgrades this year, while making a further marginal cut to its outlook for Chinese consumption. In its latest Monthly Oil Market Report, the organization projects global demand will grow by 180,000 barrels a day (b/d) to 105.72mn b/d in 2026, and by 2.55mn b/d to 108.28mn b/d in 2027.

Both projections sit in line with the organization's October assessment. The 2026 demand growth projection is a fraction of the 1.4mn b/d OPEC was forecasting before the US-Iran war began. Its outlook continues to assume that this year's weak growth will give way to a sharp rebound in 2027.

What has changed in the China outlook?

OPEC now expects Chinese oil demand to fall by 70,000 b/d to 16.81mn b/d in 2026, a slightly steeper decline than it forecast last month. It continues to project a 470,000 b/d rebound in 2027.

Chinese consumption fell by 110,000 b/d on the year to 17.25mn b/d in September, OPEC said. Lower diesel and gasoline use outweighed stronger demand for petrochemical feedstocks and jet fuel during the month.

How does supply evolve outside the cartel?

OPEC kept its non-OPEC+ liquids supply growth forecasts unchanged at 640,000 b/d for 2026 and 620,000 b/d for 2027. Output is forecast to average 54.84mn b/d this year and 55.45mn b/d next year.

Brazil, the US, Canada and Argentina are expected to lead growth this year. That expansion will be partly offset by an 860,000 b/d decline in Qatar. For 2027, Qatar, Canada, Brazil and Argentina are forecast to be the main sources of growth.

US liquids supply growth tells a sharper story. OPEC forecasts it will slow from 500,000 b/d this year to just 30,000 b/d in 2027. The organization expects US crude and condensate production to fall by 110,000 b/d next year, but that decline is forecast to be more than offset by a 140,000 b/d increase in natural gas liquids (NGL, light hydrocarbons produced alongside oil and gas) output.

What do the production data show?

OPEC does not forecast OPEC+ crude production itself, but it publishes an average of estimates from secondary sources, including the price reporting agency Argus. Those figures show OPEC+ crude output, including Mexico and the UAE, rose by 2.04mn b/d on the month to 41.23mn b/d in October. Saudi Arabia and Iraq drove most of the increase.

The UAE withdrew from OPEC and OPEC+ on 1 May this year, while Mexico is not bound by an OPEC+ production quota.

Why are inventories drawing attention?

OPEC also pointed to a sharp decline in global oil inventories. It estimates stocks fell by 537mn bl from a February peak to 8.043bn bl at the end of September. Non-OECD (non-OECD, countries outside the club of mostly wealthy economies) inventories accounted for 294mn bl of the decline, and OECD strategic reserves for a further 218mn bl.

The balance of the report leaves OPEC's central bet intact. The cartel is wagering that a weak 2026 gives way to a 2.55mn b/d demand surge in 2027, even as Chinese consumption continues to undershoot its earlier expectations and US supply growth grinds toward a halt.