By Amara Osei

US crude oil fell roughly 17.5% from its late-October peak near $105 to a ten-week low of $86 on 10 November, according to CFI's TradingView analysis. The immediate technical verdict remains bearish unless the price records a four-hour close above $93.259.

What drove the 17.5% decline?

Easing geopolitical tensions allowed the market's risk premium (the extra valuation assigned to geopolitical risk) to fade. Supply pressure then reinforced the fall: OPEC+ output jumped in October, led by a 26% increase in Saudi production. US crude inventories also recorded a 4.7 million barrel build in the week ending 6 November.

The market recovered part of its losses on 12 November, closing at $88.74 after a 2.6% gain. Renewed geopolitical tensions drove that rebound, while shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz faced disruption. Fundamentals therefore remained split between supply and inventory pressure on one side, and a geopolitical risk premium on the other.

CFI said the risk premium returns with each rise in geopolitical tensions and is clearly reflected in the technical picture.

What does the four-hour chart show?

An uptrend that began in mid-October had support from a well-defined ascending trendline (a support line rising over time). Price then broke below that line from a peak near $106 and formed a sequence of lower highs and lower lows on the four-hour timeframe.

• Lower highs fell from $106 to $100 and then $93.259.
• Lower lows declined from $94.3 to $87.9 and then $84.3.

CFI said the pattern confirmed “a shift in market structure from bullish to bearish.” The technical summary therefore places the late-October peak near $106, while the broader fundamental summary uses a peak near $105.

Trading near $88.97, price was within a corrective rebound from the latest low. That recovery had not yet repaired the bearish structure, because the reported price remained below both the $91.355-$92.191 supply zone and the $93.259 last lower high.

Which levels carry the clearest signal?

The zone between $91.355 and $92.191 stands out as supply, identified through the Fibonacci retracement tool (a measure of pullbacks within a prior price move). A rejection from that zone could resume the decline, provided negative momentum persists. That failure could open the way toward the $86.00 area first, matching the ten-week low recorded on 10 November.

The $84.3 low could follow if the market broke through $86. A break below $84.3 would extend the bearish wave toward lower levels. These two references give the technical outlook a defined sequence rather than an open-ended decline forecast.

The bullish alternative requires a four-hour close above $93.259. That level remains the last recorded lower high, so such a close would break the sequence of lower highs and bring the bullish scenario back into play. A move through the supply zone alone would not satisfy that test.

What is the near-term decision?

Trading near $88.97, price sits below the identified supply area and the last lower high, leaving the bearish structure intact. Rejection between $91.355 and $92.191 could preserve the path toward $86 and $84.3. A four-hour close above $93.259 would instead invalidate that immediate bearish sequence.

Geopolitical developments can interrupt either technical path. The 2.6% gain on 12 November shows how renewed tensions and disrupted Strait of Hormuz traffic can quickly restore the risk premium.

Absent another disruption, the combination of October's supply increase, the 4.7 million barrel US inventory build and the lower-high/lower-low structure supports the downside case. The decisive bullish reversal signal remains a four-hour close above $93.259, rather than the corrective rebound through $88.97.