By Elena Vasquez

Nigeria must sustain double-digit growth and push investment above 30% of GDP if it is to create enough jobs, materially reduce poverty and become a $1 trillion economy; the current rate of about 4% cannot deliver those outcomes, Anambra State Governor Professor Chukwuma Charles Soludo said on Thursday in Abuja.

Soludo, a former governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, delivered the keynote address at the public presentation of “Economic Diversification and Structural Transformation in Nigeria: Past, Present and Future” by House of Representatives member Abdulmumin Jibrin Kofa at the Presidential Villa in Abuja.

His theme, “Speeding Up and Building to Last,” reflected his assessment that Nigeria had lost considerable time in its economic development journey.

What has the Tinubu administration achieved?

Soludo acknowledged that President Bola Tinubu’s administration had pulled the economy back from the brink of collapse and restored a measure of stability, but warned that the current trajectory remained inadequate.

Soludo said: “The administration has done very well, rescued the economy… Growth has begun to come back, and we are now on the right trajectory.”

He compared the economy when the government took office to a dead horse that was still standing, then described the administration as spraying oxygen on it; acceleration, speed and building to last now mattered.

What growth does Soludo say Nigeria needs?

Reaching a $1 trillion economy within the next few years requires growth of at least two digits, Soludo said, a threshold that in his view matched the scale of Nigeria’s unmet social and industrial requirements.

He said double-digit expansion requires investment in excess of 30% of GDP, against current investment of about 17-point-something per cent, leaving a gap of roughly 13 percentage points.

Although he described 4% growth as an improvement on the recent past, Soludo called it too moderate for significant poverty reduction or accelerated transformation.

The demographic pressure is rising: about 70% of Nigerians are aged 30 or below, while the population is projected to reach approximately 400 million within the next three decades.

Soludo said government must prepare employment, education, healthcare, housing and other essential services for that population, requiring a pace equivalent to travelling 1,000 kilometres per hour to catch up with peers.

Where is economic diversification missing?

Soludo identified manufacturing as a central weakness in Nigeria’s diversification, arguing that the country moved from an agriculture-led economy to a largely service-driven one without building the industrial base required for large-scale employment and productive capacity.

• Agriculture’s share of economic output fell from about 64% around independence to approximately 23% by 2025.
• Services now contribute roughly 60% of output, while manufacturing has remained near 8% of GDP for the past 56 years.
• Manufacturing still accounts for less than 10% of GDP, which Soludo said is too small to supply jobs for a population approaching 400 million.

Soludo said: “Our economic diversification and transformation have happened with a missing middle. There is a middle that is missing, which is the secondary sector.”

He argued that industrialisation must produce productive jobs and widespread prosperity as millions of young people enter the labour market, making the manufacturing shortfall an economic and social constraint.

What does the budget reveal about fiscal capacity?

Soludo used the federal government’s N68tn budget to test fiscal capacity, calculating that its full implementation would provide about N772 per Nigerian per day, or roughly 57 cents.

He judged that amount inadequate for a rapidly growing population’s infrastructure, industrial and other development needs, describing Nigeria as resource-rich but financially very poor.

Government revenue comparisons underlined the constraint:

• Nigeria: about 10% of GDP
• Kenya: approximately 18% of GDP
• Ghana: approximately 16% of GDP

Soludo called for stronger revenue mobilisation, more private-sector investment and a development strategy capable of attracting substantial capital to finance infrastructure, industrial development and other critical sectors.

Which reforms must survive the 2027 election?

Soludo praised Tinubu for confronting longstanding distortions in the foreign exchange market, arguing that a competitive exchange rate is essential to stronger exports and industrial competitiveness.

He cited Nigeria’s reported non-oil export earnings of $6.1bn in 2025 as evidence of the potential gains from a more competitive exchange rate and urged the president to sustain the reforms.

With the 2027 general elections approaching, he warned political leaders against sacrificing economic reforms for short-term electoral popularity, a risk he said had already weakened earlier development programmes.

Soludo urged agreement on reforms that could survive changes of government, arguing that policy reversals and a lack of continuity had prevented past programmes from taking hold.

He also urged greater patronage of locally made goods, saying domestic demand could stimulate investment, expand production, create millions of jobs and attract foreign direct investment to serve the Nigerian market.

His prescription also called for self-belief, national consciousness and collective commitment from government, businesses and citizens.

President Tinubu was represented by House Speaker Tajudeen Abbas, with presidential chief of staff Femi Gbajabiamila, ministers, lawmakers and senior government officials among the attendees.

Soludo’s prescription links three constraints: 4% growth must become double digit, investment must rise by roughly 13 percentage points, and manufacturing must supply jobs for a population heading toward 400 million.