Nigeria produced 502.26 million barrels of crude oil and condensate between January and October 2026, a daily average of 1.65 million barrels per day (mbpd), according to monthly data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC). The figure falls short of the 1.84 mbpd benchmark on which the 2026 budget is based, leaving a shortfall of roughly 57 million barrels over the 304 days covered.

The deficit carries fiscal weight. At the budget benchmark, Nigeria would have produced about 559 million barrels in the period. No month reached the target; the closest was June, when the daily average stood at 1.74 mbpd, still about 100,000 barrels per day below the goal.

What does the output trend show?

Production strengthened as the year progressed. The first four months delivered 189.83 million barrels, a daily average of 1.58 mbpd. From May to October, output rose to 312.43 million barrels, averaging 1.70 mbpd. The second half of the period therefore ran about 118,000 barrels per day above the first.

The monthly breakdown, drawn from NUPRC figures released on Wednesday, tracks the recovery:

• January: 50.45 million barrels (1.63 mbpd)
• February: 41.55 million barrels (1.48 mbpd), the weakest month
• March: 47.93 million barrels (1.55 mbpd)
• April: 49.90 million barrels (1.66 mbpd)
• May: 52.72 million barrels (1.70 mbpd)
• June: 52.06 million barrels (1.74 mbpd), the strongest month so far
• July: 51.80 million barrels (1.67 mbpd)
• August: 52.01 million barrels (1.68 mbpd)
• September: 51.51 million barrels (1.72 mbpd)
• October: 52.32 million barrels (1.69 mbpd)

Every month from May onward held above 51 million barrels. The 502.26 million barrels produced in ten months equals about 90.6 per cent of the 554.4 million barrels Nigeria produced in the whole of 2025.

How did October perform?

October output averaged 1.69 mbpd of crude oil and condensate, 1.7 per cent below the 1.72 mbpd recorded in September, translating to about 52.32 million barrels for the month. Crude oil alone, excluding condensate (light hydrocarbons produced alongside crude), averaged 1.51 mbpd; condensate accounted for about 0.17 mbpd.

Daily production in October peaked at 1.79 million barrels, with the month's low at 1.60 million barrels. The crude oil figure of 1.51 mbpd represents 101 per cent of the 1.5 mbpd quota set for Nigeria by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

Why has compliance with OPEC improved?

October marked the sixth consecutive month in which Nigeria met its OPEC crude quota. The country missed the target in each of the first four months, with crude oil output excluding condensate averaging 1.46 mbpd in January, 1.31 mbpd in February, 1.38 mbpd in March and 1.49 mbpd in April. Since May, production has stayed at or above the 1.5 mbpd quota every month.

NUPRC attributed the stable performance to better operational stability, noting that improved production uptime (the share of time facilities operate without interruption) and crude evacuation efficiency (the speed and reliability of moving crude from fields to terminals) also contributed. The commission added that operators and other industry stakeholders continue to work on improving efficiency, protecting asset integrity and making production more reliable across the upstream sector (the exploration and production segment of the oil industry).

Which terminals drove October's output?

Forcados Terminal led production with a daily average of 318.49 thousand barrels per day (kbpd) of crude oil and condensate, followed by Bonny with 311.02 kbpd. Together, the two terminals accounted for about 629,500 barrels per day.

Qua Iboe Terminal followed with 173.97 kbpd, Escravos Oil Terminal recorded 134.67 kbpd and Bongo ranked fifth with 106.65 kbpd. The five terminals combined produced about 1.04 mbpd, roughly 62 per cent of Nigeria's total daily output of crude oil and condensate in October.

The remaining challenge sits in the arithmetic. Sustaining compliance with the OPEC quota has proven achievable since May; closing the 190,000-barrel-per-day gap between current output and the 2026 budget benchmark has not. Two months remain in the year for the shortfall, now at about 57 million barrels, to narrow.