By Amara Osei

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick became the leading prediction-market favorite to be the next Trump Cabinet official to depart, with Kalshi odds reaching 57% on Thursday, up more than 30 percentage points from Wednesday. Prediction markets, wagering venues that price potential events, showed Lutnick ahead of two senior colleagues despite a White House statement of confidence.

What do the departure odds show?

• Kalshi: Howard Lutnick 57%; War Secretary Pete Hegseth 15%; Secretary of State Marco Rubio 9%.
• Kalshi movement: Lutnick gained more than 30 percentage points from Wednesday.
• Polymarket: The split was significantly tighter, although Lutnick still gained more than 10 points from Wednesday.

Lutnick led both platforms, although Polymarket’s narrower spread suggested less certainty than Kalshi. The market ranking captures political vulnerability; it does not establish that Trump will remove him.

What put Lutnick’s position at risk?

The controversy accelerated after Nvidia President and CEO Jensen Huang resigned Thursday morning, according to the Washington Examiner, after reports said he had two separate affairs, one involving an alleged Chinese spy. Axios published two reports on Wednesday that said Lutnick’s actions and decisions involving Nvidia jeopardized national security.

• Classified information: Lutnick received a classified memo describing Huang’s affair with the alleged Chinese spy, then approved Nvidia chip sales to Chinese buyers, Axios reported.
• Export controls: Lutnick alone resisted Trump’s effort to curb transshipment, or routing through third countries, of more advanced Nvidia chips not approved for China to Chinese artificial-intelligence companies.

Those reports placed Lutnick at the intersection of technology export controls and Trump’s China policy. Nvidia has been a critical participant in the president’s artificial-intelligence platform and foreign policy. Its chips have also proved instrumental to the rapid American artificial-intelligence infrastructure buildout.

The artificial-intelligence contest has remained a point of tension between Washington, D.C., and Beijing since Trump’s renewed trade war with China last year. After several rounds of reciprocal tariff actions, the Trump administration approved sales of certain previously blocked chips to China, despite warnings that the decision could accelerate Beijing’s artificial-intelligence buildout.

Does the White House still back Lutnick?

A White House official told the Washington Examiner on Thursday that Trump “maintains complete confidence in the secretary and his ability to carry out the position as the most transformative Commerce Secretary in modern history.”

The official added: “Secretary Lutnick is a champion of President Trump’s America First trade and tariff policies, which have secured almost 20 fair trade deals and trillions in manufacturing investments.”

The defense rests on two measurable claims: almost 20 fair trade deals and trillions in manufacturing investments. It directly counters the prediction-market signal, although neither position resolves the underlying personnel question.

Has Trump signaled a wider Cabinet shake-up?

After the 2026 midterm elections, Trump told reporters in the prior week that he did not plan to make changes. In a 60 Minutes interview, however, he said he was considering “maybe, a few changes.”

Trump taped the interview on Friday, and CBS aired it on Sunday. Hours after Trump spoke to CBS, he replaced former White House chief of staff Susie Wiles with his longtime deputy Stephen Miller. That move demonstrated his willingness to change senior personnel despite his initial public position.

What do advisers say has driven the pressure?

Senior Trump administration officials and outside advisers told the Washington Examiner that Lutnick had caused problems dating to last year. They blamed him for failing to secure enough bilateral trade deals after Trump’s enhanced tariff schedule took effect and for clashing with other administration members.

One former senior White House official, who works closely with Trump’s outside political team, said Lutnick “would just promise stupid shit and then make us clean up the f***ing mess.” The source cited two examples:

• Trump Gold Card: An immigration program granting expedited residency to individuals willing to donate $1 million to the U.S. Treasury.
• External Revenue Service: A proposed revenue agency that could supplant the Internal Revenue Service and eliminate the need to collect income tax from Americans and legal immigrants.

The source concluded: “At the end of the day, the guy is just a buffoon.” He added: “He’s friends with the president. That’s why he got the job, and he’s outstayed his welcome.”

Those claims leave the personnel outcome unresolved: prediction markets favor a Lutnick exit, former advisers criticize him, and the White House publicly backs his continued service.