Prediction markets have priced Ian Buck, Nvidia's VP and general manager of high-performance computing, as the favorite to become the chipmaker's next chief executive, giving him 37% odds on Kalshi ahead of interim CEO Colette Kress at 19%. Trading on the succession contract has already surpassed $1.5 million, with Polymarket's parallel market drawing nearly $630,000 in volume. Nvidia announced Jensen Huang's resignation on Thursday and appointed Kress, the finance chief, as interim leader.

For executives tracking the boardroom fallout, the message is stark: markets do not expect the interim appointment to become permanent. Nvidia's board said it is searching for a successor and will consider both internal and external candidates — and bettors are treating that statement as a live auction.

Who leads the succession market?

Buck has spent more than two decades at Nvidia, joining in 2004 and rising to run the division most closely tied to the company's core data-center franchise. Kress follows at 19%, a sign that traders view her elevation as a caretaker arrangement rather than a coronation. Rene Haas, CEO of Arm Holdings — the British chip designer that licenses its technology to Nvidia — ranks third at 9%.

Madison Huang, Jensen Huang's daughter and Nvidia's senior director of product marketing, trails far behind the leading contenders. Kalshi gives her less than a 1% chance of succeeding her father; Polymarket puts her at roughly 2%. Polymarket's market shows a similar lineup overall, with the same leading contenders drawing comparable odds to those on Kalshi.

What triggered the trading frenzy?

The markets began moving earlier this week, as contracts on Huang's successor picked up volume on both Kalshi and Polymarket and generated hundreds of thousands of dollars in trades. The catalyst was Nvidia's announcement of an investigation into Huang, who told the board he had an intimate relationship with a business executive reportedly identified by U.S. intelligence officials as a Chinese spy. The scrutiny intensified Wednesday, when reports surfaced alleging that Huang also had an extramarital affair with an Nvidia employee.

Bettors are wagering on far more than the next leader. One Polymarket contract on when Huang would announce his departure generated more than $22.5 million in trading volume — by far the largest market in the affair. Another active Kalshi contract asks when Huang will testify before Congress and has drawn nearly $170,000.

The testimony odds are lopsided. Traders put the probability of Huang appearing before Congress before next July at 93%, compared with roughly 91% before January and 86% before December. Those numbers tell practitioners the market views congressional testimony as near-certain, with the only real question being timing.

What is happening to the stock?

The turmoil has dragged Nvidia shares down roughly 5% on Thursday morning, to about $165. Traders on Kalshi are amplifying the price focus through perpetual futures contracts, which let them take positions on whether the stock will rise or fall without owning shares. Those contracts recorded $111 million in trading volume over the past 24 hours — dwarfing the succession market itself.

That imbalance matters for anyone reading these markets as a forecast. The succession contract at $1.5 million reflects genuine conviction about the candidates, but the $111 million in derivatives volume shows the dominant trade is volatility, not personnel. Compare the two: traders are betting seventy times more on how the share price moves than on who runs the company.

What should practitioners take from the odds?

Three signals stand out. First, the market treats Buck — a 21-year insider running the compute business — as the natural successor, while discounting both the interim chief and a dynastic option. Second, the near-unanimous testimony odds suggest investors expect the political dimension of this affair to run well into next year. Third, the volume split between leadership contracts and price derivatives indicates the market's center of gravity remains the stock, not the succession.

The board has committed to considering external candidates, and Arm's Haas at 9% represents that scenario's strongest proxy. Whether the market's ranking survives the search process is now the operative question for anyone with exposure to Nvidia — through shares, contracts, or supplier relationships.