By Amara Osei

Global food prices eased in October 2026 as the Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) Food Price Index averaged 133.9 points, down 1.6 points from its revised September level, while sugar rose 6.6%.

The index remained 5.9% above October 2025 and 16.4% below its March 2022 peak. The benchmark tracks monthly changes in international prices for a basket of globally traded food commodities; sugar’s 6.6% rise and a 0.3% vegetable-oil increase partly offset declines across the other groups.

The result was a divided commodity market rather than a uniform decline. Cereals, meat and dairy all fell from September, yet the 6.6% sugar advance and 0.3% vegetable-oil rise kept the overall reduction modest.

What drove the October commodity divergence?

The cereal price index fell 4.5% from September, led by wheat after four consecutive monthly increases. FAO reported subdued international demand and an improving production outlook, particularly in Argentina, as contributors.

Expectations of fewer restrictions on Black Sea exports also eased price pressure, although continuing logistical disruptions limited the fall. International maize prices eased after reaching a three-year high in September; United States harvest activity and expectations of ample supplies from major South American exporters weighed on quotations.

The all-rice price index rose 1.6%, as harvest delays in some exporting countries, adverse weather and rising costs lifted quotations. Rice moved against the wider cereal decline recorded in October.

Vegetable oil prices edged up 0.3% as higher soybean and sunflower oil quotations more than offset lower rapeseed oil prices. Soybean oil reached its highest level since late 2022, supported by firm biofuel demand, meaning demand for energy produced from biological feedstocks, and seasonally declining South American supplies; sunflower oil recovered amid tight Black Sea export availability.

Meat prices declined 1.2% from September, although the index remained slightly above its year-earlier level. Pig, ovine and bovine meat fell, while poultry prices were broadly stable.

Dairy prices dropped 1.1% as lower international butter and cheese quotations reflected ample supplies and subdued buying interest. The resulting 1.1% dairy decline outweighed further increases in milk powder prices.

Sugar climbed 6.6%, recording its fourth consecutive monthly increase and highest level since December 2024. The price stood 28.8% above a year earlier, as rainfall-related disruptions to sugarcane harvesting and crushing in Brazil’s key Centre-South region combined with production concerns in India, the European Union and Thailand for 2026/27.

October’s upward price pressure therefore remained concentrated in sugar and vegetable oil, not the food basket as a whole. The sugar index’s 6.6% monthly gain and 28.8% annual increase contrasted with cereal, meat and dairy declines of 4.5%, 1.2% and 1.1%, respectively.

Is the global cereal supply outlook secure?

FAO’s latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief forecasts global cereal production to decline from the record reached in 2025 but remain at its second-highest level on record, 2,999 million tonnes, in 2026. FAO expects every major cereal group to contract, with wheat carrying the largest forecast reduction.

FAO forecasts coarse grain production to fall only marginally. It forecasts rice production to fall 2.5% to 552 million tonnes, the first contraction in four seasons, reflecting poor producer margins and adverse weather associated with El Niño, a recurring climate pattern.

FAO forecasts global cereal utilization in 2026/27 to increase 0.2% to 2,971 million tonnes. Food use of wheat and rice should rise 0.8% and 1%, respectively, each slightly below the pace of global population growth.

FAO forecasts cereal stocks to increase by 17.2 million tonnes, or 1.8%, by the close of the 2027 seasons. Higher wheat inventories in Russia and Ukraine, where export disruptions are causing supplies to accumulate, account for much of that increase.

FAO forecasts the global cereal stocks-to-use ratio, meaning ending stocks relative to forecast consumption, at 32.4%, slightly above the previous season. It expects world cereal trade in 2026/27 to contract 3.3% to 507.7 million tonnes, driven by an 8.6% decline in wheat trade.

FAO expects wheat shipments from all major exporters to fall amid supply and logistical constraints. The projected balance contains two opposing signals: second-highest global production and a 1.8% rise in ending stocks strengthen the aggregate supply position, while a 3.3% trade contraction signals reduced international movement. The projected 8.6% fall in wheat trade makes wheat the main driver of the weaker trade outlook.

Where is food assistance still required?

In its November 2026 Crop Prospects and Food Situation report, FAO estimates that 41 countries and territories continue to require external food assistance, including 31 in Africa. FAO forecasts aggregate cereal production in Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries (LIFDCs) at approximately 126.5 million tonnes in 2026, about 2% above both 2025 and the five-year average.

The production increase largely reflects an anticipated recovery in Asia, particularly Near East Asia, while FAO expects African LIFDC production to remain close to average. FAO identifies persistent conflict and insecurity as the main drivers of severe acute food insecurity, meaning food-access conditions associated with acute hunger, while El Niño-related weather shocks are worsening conditions in several subregions.

The output recovery therefore does not remove assistance needs. FAO’s caseload of 41 countries and territories coexists with global cereal production forecast at 2,999 million tonnes; the report identifies insecurity, conflict and weather shocks, rather than output alone, as the main drivers.

FAO expects production impacts to remain severe into 2027, potentially aggravating food insecurity further. Lower headline commodity prices therefore do not remove the need for targeted assistance across 41 countries and territories, even as cereal inventories rise globally.