By Elena Vasquez

Most of SpaceX’s remaining Falcon 9 launch slots through roughly 2030 are already booked, and the company is setting the rocket aside to concentrate on Starship, a much larger vehicle. That decision leaves satellite operators facing a narrower choice of launch routes at potentially higher prices.

I made the first commercial booking on a used Falcon 9 booster. In 2016, as SES’s chief technology officer, I agreed to place an SES communications satellite on a booster SpaceX had already flown; no commercial customer had done so before. SpaceX launched it in March 2017, and I oversaw six Falcon 9 missions during my time at SES.

Our engineers worked with SpaceX engineers who had tested the engines, checked the electronics and prepared the booster for a second flight. I was confident in the company’s ability to deliver, and it did. Today, as an investor in growth-stage space companies, I would not book without knowing the cost, the schedule and the fallback.

Who has secured capacity before 2030?

Operators with bookings before 2030 have secured scarce capacity. In October 2025, K2 Space, one of my portfolio companies, announced a 2027 Falcon 9 flight for three satellites, having secured its place more than a year in advance.

Even that lead does not remove launch risk. A supplier could call just before launch because another customer has found a fault in a component on which your payload depends. Your engineers may need only a few days to investigate, but other customers sharing the rocket are waiting too.

SpaceX’s rideshare terms allow you to apply money already paid toward another flight and pay a rebooking fee of 5% to 10%. You could calculate that fee to the dollar and still lack a reliable date for the revenue your payload would begin generating.

What does a 100 kg satellite cost to launch?

Operators building satellites of 100 kg or less face particular exposure after 2030. On a Transporter flight, they share the rocket with dozens of other customers and buy only the space they require.

For a shared flight around Earth passing near both poles, SpaceX advertises $350,000 for the first 50 kg and $7,000 for each additional kilogram. A founder with a 100 kg satellite can therefore pencil in $700,000 for the ride.

It is difficult to see how a space company can reach orbit after 2030 on anything like those terms. Launch access and launch price have become linked constraints for smaller operators.

Can Starship close the cost gap?

In March, K2 Space launched its two-tonne Gravitas satellite on Falcon 9. Co-founder Karan Kunjur has argued: “It still makes economic sense to launch such a spacecraft at a cost of roughly $7.2 million.” That compares with an estimated $600,000 if Starship delivers the promised savings.

K2 remains an unusual case. Its satellite costs less to build than traditional spacecraft of similar power, and most satellite operators will struggle to offset higher launch costs with savings on that scale.

Which alternatives can operators secure?

At ICEYE, another of my portfolio companies, executives agreed with Arianespace in September to explore Europe’s Ariane 6 rocket for future missions serving European government customers. Neither company announced a launch date.

ICEYE continues to fly with SpaceX. In October, it launched four radar satellites on one SpaceX flight and four more on another mission only 19 days later.

Backup capacity exposes a timing problem. If a provider postpones a flight, operators must decide how long they can wait while continuing to pay engineers and remaining unable to sell the services their satellites will provide.

Blue Origin could take a payload on New Glenn if the vehicle has a place available in time. Engineers may need years to build enough of a new rocket for regular flights after its first launch.

My estimate is that Rocket Lab and Relativity Space may take until 2033 or 2034 to reach that point with Neutron and Terran R.

What should operators ask before committing?

At SES, our team worked alongside the SpaceX personnel who tested and prepared the used booster. That gave us confidence in a second flight and set a standard for evaluating a future launch contract.

I would ask the people running a satellite company three questions: “Which flight have you booked, how much have you agreed to pay, and what will you do if you lose your place?” A customer should require those answers before counting on a satellite or payload entering service by a particular date.

The decision now is not simply which rocket to book, but whether the slot, the price and the fallback can support a promised in-service date.