US dealmaking will grow 8% in 2026, according to the latest forecast from EY-Parthenon, the strategy consultancy arm of EY. The projection signals a resilient year ahead for mergers and acquisitions despite the geopolitical and economic headwinds that have weighed on transaction markets since 2022.

The firm's outlook positions 2026 as a year of measured expansion rather than retreat. An 8% growth rate, applied to a market that has already stabilised, would extend the recovery in corporate transaction activity across the United States — the world's largest M&A market.

What does the forecast say about the deal environment?

EY-Parthenon frames the 8% figure as evidence of resilience. The consultancy acknowledges persistent obstacles in its outlook, citing two categories of pressure explicitly:

• Geopolitical headwinds — ongoing international tensions that complicate cross-border transactions and long-range corporate planning.
• Economic headwinds — macroeconomic conditions that continue to test corporate confidence and financing conditions.

Despite these factors, the firm expects deal activity to expand, not contract. The forecast implies that corporate acquirers and private equity buyers will push forward with transactions they have deferred during the uncertainty of recent years.

Why does this matter for corporate leaders?

For chief executives and boards, an 8% growth forecast for 2026 carries strategic weight. It suggests the window of depressed valuations and muted competition for assets may be closing. Companies that have waited on the sidelines may face a more crowded field of bidders as activity accelerates.

The forecast also carries implications for capital allocation. Boards weighing divestitures, carve-outs or acquisitions will need to plan against a market that EY-Parthenon expects to grow, rather than one stuck in the deal drought that characterised much of the post-2022 period.

What are the risks to the outlook?

EY-Parthenon's own framing — growth despite headwinds — makes clear the forecast is conditional. The firm names geopolitical and economic pressures as live constraints rather than resolved issues.

That framing matters. Forecasts of this kind assume that the pressures dampening dealmaking do not intensify materially. A sharp geopolitical escalation or a deterioration in economic conditions could push against the 8% trajectory.

Still, the headline position is unambiguous: EY-Parthenon expects US dealmaking to grow 8% in 2026, resilience over retreat.

CEOs and dealmakers will now test that forecast against the pipeline decisions they make in the months ahead.