US merger and acquisition deal volume is on course to rise 8% this year, according to a new forecast from professional services firm EY reported by CFO Dive.

The projection points to a measured rebound in US dealmaking after a multiyear slump that pushed transaction activity well below the historic highs reached in 2021. While an 8% year-on-year gain would mark a clear inflection, it would still leave aggregate volume short of the peak reached during the post-pandemic surge.

The forecast lands against a backdrop of contested signals in the broader dealmaking environment. Public market valuations have recovered from their 2022 trough, private equity sponsors are sitting on elevated levels of uninvested commitments, and corporate boards have spent two years deferring strategic transactions in the face of elevated borrowing costs. Against that, antitrust scrutiny has intensified at the Federal Trade Commission and the Department of Justice, and large strategic deals continue to face extended review timelines.

What is driving EY's 8% call?

EY's transaction advisory practice argues that the dealmaking pause of 2023 and 2024 has produced pent-up demand that will translate into signed transactions through the back half of this year. The firm points to three supporting forces: corporate balance sheets that remain flush with cash, the accumulated dry powder inside private equity funds, and a step-down in the cost of acquisition financing as the Federal Reserve moves toward rate cuts.

The recovery, in EY's framing, is likely to be concentrated in sectors where strategic and financial buyers are pursuing overlapping themes - technology consolidation, healthcare roll-ups, and energy-transition assets - though the firm expects activity to broaden as confidence returns.

How does the projection stack up against recent years?

After two consecutive years of contraction in announced US deal value and volume, even a single-digit percentage rise represents a meaningful reset for investment banks, advisory firms, and private equity sponsors that depend on transaction-related revenue.

Industry participants have spent the past two years warning clients that recovery would come in stages rather than as a sudden boom. An 8% rise in volume aligns with that gradualist narrative and would be sufficient to lift fee pools at the major advisors without requiring a return to 2021's frenzied pace.

What could derail the forecast?

The principal risks to EY's call are the same forces that have shaped the deal environment since 2022: persistent core inflation, the path of US Federal Reserve policy, the intensity of antitrust enforcement, and the trajectory of corporate earnings. A renewed surge in long-dated yields, a credit-market dislocation, or a high-profile regulatory block of a major transaction could each push recovery into next year.

Geopolitical risk also continues to weigh on cross-border transactions, particularly in sectors where national-security review has expanded in scope.

What does it mean for advisory businesses?

For the major advisory firms - EY itself alongside the bulge-bracket banks and consulting competitors - an 8% volume increase translates into a tangible lift in engagement pipelines. Cross-border transactions are likely to draw outsized demand for tax structuring, regulatory analysis, and post-merger integration support.

EY's forecast will be revisited through the year as quarterly transaction data print and as announced deals accumulate. For now, the headline number stands as an early read that the US M&A market is moving off the floor, even if it has yet to return to full stride.