Eight Nigerian banks earned a combined N3.47 trillion in profit after tax for the nine months ended September 30, 2026, a 12.5 per cent rise from N3.08 trillion a year earlier. The headline growth, however, conceals sharply diverging results: two of the eight lenders — Zenith Bank and GTCO — reported falling profits, while loan growth across the group was a modest 4.9 per cent.

The figures come from an analysis of the unaudited nine-month statements of Guaranty Trust Holding Company (GTCO), Zenith Bank, Access Holdings, Ecobank Transnational Incorporated (ETI), Wema Bank, Stanbic IBTC Holdings, Sterling Financial Holdings and First HoldCo. Combined profit before tax rose 16.3 per cent to N4.68 trillion from N4.03 trillion.

Customer deposits grew 8.9 per cent to N149.57 trillion from N137.41 trillion. Combined loans expanded to N61.26 trillion from N58.37 trillion — meaning deposit growth outpaced credit growth by nearly double.

Who drove the growth?

First HoldCo led the group with N744.45 billion in profit after tax, up 65.1 per cent from N450.87 billion. Notably, this surge occurred while its interest income fell to N2.09 trillion from N2.29 trillion and interest expenses rose to N833 billion from N791.80 billion. The bank earned more profit on less lending income — the earnings engine sits elsewhere, and the statement does not itemise it.

Wema Bank delivered the strongest percentage gain: profit after tax rose 72.6 per cent to N219.84 billion, with interest income up 37.2 per cent to N543.56 billion. Stanbic IBTC posted a 33 per cent rise to N370.36 billion, despite interest income falling 5.4 per cent and interest expenses jumping 27.6 per cent.

Sterling Financial Holdings earned N75.37 billion, up 21 per cent. Access Holdings reported N474.17 billion, up 5.9 per cent.

Where did earnings slip?

Zenith Bank recorded N675.83 billion, an 11.6 per cent decline from N764.20 billion, even though interest expenses fell faster (down 15.4 per cent to N688.73 billion) than interest income (down 4.5 per cent to N2.62 trillion). GTCO's profit after tax dropped 20 per cent to N200.39 billion, with interest expenses up 27.7 per cent to N356 billion.

Ecobank earned N707.40 billion, a marginal 0.7 per cent rise, on interest income that declined to N2.28 trillion from N2.33 trillion.

What did the executives say?

Ecobank Group CEO Jeremy Awori credited deposit mobilisation and diversified revenue, with current and savings accounts making up 85 per cent of deposits. "Our Growth, Transformation, and Returns strategy is clearly reflected in our efficiency and franchise performance. Our cost-to-income ratio was 47.8 per cent, ahead of our 2026 target range of 48 per cent to 50 per cent," Awori said. He also disclosed that the group's non-performing loan ratio (the share of loans in default) stood at 7.5 per cent — near the top of its six-to-eight per cent target band.

Access Bank Group Managing Director Innocent C. Ike pointed to falling credit losses: "The significant reduction in impairment charges, together with growth in net interest income after impairment and net fee and commission income, demonstrates the resilience of our core earnings base." Access's international operations generated 82.2 per cent of profit before tax — international subsidiaries 43.7 per cent, the rest of Africa 38.5 per cent — leaving Nigeria with just 17.8 per cent.

GTCO CEO Segun Agbaje acknowledged "significant fair value losses during the period" while defending the franchise. "Looking ahead, we will always optimise risk-free returns wherever we see them and will always be positioned to take advantage of arbitrage opportunities as market conditions evolve, without compromising the quality of our risk assets," Agbaje said.

What does this change for lending?

Ecobank held the largest loan book at N15.95 trillion — a 5.9 per cent contraction — followed by Access at N14.33 trillion (up 7.4 per cent) and Zenith at N11.64 trillion (up 11.4 per cent). First HoldCo lent N9.39 trillion, up 4.8 per cent. Wema Bank expanded lending fastest, by 44.5 per cent to N2.51 trillion; Sterling grew loans 28.8 per cent to N1.82 trillion; Stanbic IBTC rose 9.9 per cent to N2.61 trillion. GTCO, alongside Ecobank, cut its book by 4.1 per cent to N3 trillion.

On deposits, Access attracted the most at N36.85 trillion (up 6.6 per cent), ahead of Ecobank's N36.70 trillion and Zenith's N27.11 trillion. First HoldCo grew deposits 21.3 per cent to N22.91 trillion; GTCO rose 9.4 per cent to N13.73 trillion; Sterling jumped 28.7 per cent to N3.84 trillion; Wema gained 17.4 per cent to N3.86 trillion; Stanbic added 4.5 per cent to N4.57 trillion.

The aggregate picture is one of rising profits on thinning lending appetite at the largest books, and growth concentrated in a handful of mid-sized players. Whether the 12.5 per cent headline holds when Zenith and GTCO reverse their fair value losses is a question the nine-month numbers cannot yet answer.