Zambia’s mining expansion must now centre on new projects if the country is to lift annual copper output from a base approaching 1 million tonnes to at least 3 million tonnes by 2031. Existing operations alone cannot bridge that gap.

What must change to reach the target?

Two government frameworks supply the policy spine. The National Mineral Resources Development Policy prioritises geological mapping and wider exploration, while the Three Million Metric Tonnes Copper Production Strategy sets the 3 million-tonne annual goal for 2031.

SRK Consulting (Zambia) country manager Nyankhundi Phiri said: “The production target is already influencing the attitude of investors, while reforms are underway to create a more efficient regulatory environment.” A clear target can attract capital, but licensing and coordination must keep projects moving.

The Minerals Regulation Commission Act 2024 established the Minerals Regulation Commission to handle licensing and regulation and strengthen coordination with environmental authorities. Policy remains with the Ministry of Mines and Mineral Development, separating policy from regulatory execution.

Where will new production come from?

New supply also depends on knowing where minerals sit. A countrywide geological and geophysical mapping programme launched in 2024 was 94.2% complete, according to Phiri. He said making the information available to investors would help unlock new deposits and support the production target.

Phiri said the data would support Zambia’s drive towards 3 million tonnes. SRK country lead and director Able Tunono reported exploration and mining activity across Zambia, including areas outside the traditional Copperbelt.

The activity is broader than copper. Tunono identified more work around tailings reclamation, old stockpile dumps and new deposits, particularly in north-western Zambia. He attributed much of the sector’s optimism to strong global copper demand linked to renewable energy, electric vehicles, transmission infrastructure and data-intensive technologies.

Is copper the only growth engine?

Zambia’s National Critical Minerals Strategy 2024–2028 widens the ambition beyond copper and cobalt. It identifies:

• Nickel
• Manganese
• Lithium
• Graphite
• Rare earth elements

Phiri said the strategy also calls for greater local content, beneficiation (local processing), manufacturing, skills development and participation in critical-minerals value chains. The aim extends beyond extraction towards industrialisation, job creation and sustainable development.

Zambia also wants to become a regional centre for mineral diversification and potentially battery manufacturing, drawing resources from across Southern Africa. Phiri said this value-addition model could create industrial and employment opportunities alongside more responsible development.

The Zambia Mining and Investment Insaka, scheduled for October, will place that ambition under scrutiny. Its theme is Transforming Africa’s Mining Landscape: Regional Value Chains, Shared Prosperity and Empowering Communities.

Can infrastructure keep pace?

SRK partner and principal engineering geologist Desmond Mossop said investor interest now spans major mining companies, mid-tier and junior miners, local businesses and joint ventures. He linked the broadening investor base to infrastructure development and alternative mineral routes through Lobito, the rehabilitation of TAZARA and Nacala.

Power supply is another constraint and an investable part of the model. Under an open-access electricity policy, mines can buy directly from independent producers and energy traders, turning energy supply into an investment opportunity. Government is also targeting substantial additional generating capacity.

Transport and corridor upgrades, together with public-private partnerships, are helping address infrastructure constraints and widen investors’ route to market.

What are the technical and environmental stakes?

Mining growth carries technical and environmental costs, especially as pits deepen and operations expand. The national strategy names sustainable mining, renewable-energy investment and stronger environmental and social regulation as challenges, while deeper and larger mines raise geotechnical (rock and ground stability) and water-related risks.

Mossop said: “Conducting larger scale mining responsibly requires that project owners include a range of down-the-line aspects in the up-front design.” Environmental, closure and technical considerations must run from exploration through feasibility and construction, he said, making early investigation and responsible design essential rather than allowing these issues to surface later in the project cycle.

Phiri framed the opportunity as broader than more copper: Zambia needs geological, regulatory, infrastructure, skills and value-addition capacity to turn mineral wealth into sustained economic development without compromising technical soundness or environmental responsibility. The Critical Minerals Strategy links that approach to Zambia’s ambition of becoming an industrialised, middle-income country by 2030.

SRK Consulting (Zambia) officially launched its Kitwe office in March 2026, extending a firm with several decades of experience in Zambia. Its multidisciplinary team combines local knowledge with international technical expertise and supports clients across mining, environmental, geotechnical, water, engineering and sustainability disciplines.