By Amara Osei

UNHCR called on governments attending COP31, the UN Climate Change Conference in Antalya, Turkey, to increase adaptation funding, warning that 90 million displaced people face severe climate risks. The report, published before the conference, said nearly three-quarters of the world's forcibly displaced people live in countries exposed to severe climate risks. Afghanistan and Bangladesh were among the countries identified, according to UNHCR. The report identified the overlap among conflict, displacement and climate change.

UNHCR Assistant High Commissioner for Operations Anton Leis Garcia said: “Climate adaptation in fragile and displacement-affected areas is a matter of survival.” He added: “We need climate financing to reach the communities where the needs are greatest.”

The report highlighted the experience of a Sudanese refugee who fled conflict in al-Fashir in June 2023 for the Farchana refugee settlement in eastern Chad. She reached the settlement, where she sometimes goes a week without finding safe water. As nearby seasonal riverbeds dry up amid intensifying heat, she must walk increasingly long distances for alternative water sources. UNHCR said refugees often have limited access to cooling, water and reliable energy, restricting their ability to escape dangerous temperatures.

Can displaced people return home safely?

UNHCR warned that climate change makes sustainable return (return without renewed displacement) harder. More than two-thirds of refugee returns in the first half of 2026 went to countries highly exposed to climate hazards. The agency said this concentration put those refugees at risk of renewed displacement.

Nearly 4 million displaced people have recently returned to Syria, according to the report, where water scarcity is worsening and rainfall has become erratic. May flooding along the Euphrates River damaged homes and displaced thousands, UNHCR said.

Which regional risks could trigger further displacement?

Across sub-Saharan Africa, one in three refugee settlements could experience at least 100 days of dangerous heat each year by 2050. That exposure threatens health and livelihoods, the report said. Some settlements in Ethiopia, including Helaweyn, could experience dangerous heat for more than 200 days a year. UNHCR said this could increase the risks of heatstroke and premature death.

A forecast supersized El Niño (an exceptionally strong weather pattern) could worsen climate risks across many countries hosting refugees. It could also trigger further displacement, UNHCR warned.

• Severe flooding could displace up to 3 million people in Somalia, Kenya, South Sudan and Uganda by the end of this year.
• In the Sahel, drought, flooding and conflict could intensify competition over scarce resources, UNHCR said.
• Parts of Asia face heightened risks from droughts, floods and cyclones, according to the report.

Will COP31 deliver enough adaptation finance?

UNHCR urged governments and institutions providing climate finance to increase support for climate adaptation (measures that reduce climate vulnerability). Only about 10% of that finance reaches fragile or conflict-affected countries, the agency said.

On Wednesday, a separate UN report found rich countries falling well short of the $305 billion needed each year to help developing nations adapt to climate change. That shortfall comes as extreme weather events become more frequent and severe, the report said.

The strategic test for COP31 is whether total climate finance rises and whether the 10% reaching fragile countries expands, not merely whether new pledges are announced. Funding that reaches fragile and displacement-affected communities would directly address the survival risks identified by Leis Garcia. The stakes include dangerous heat, worsening water scarcity and damaged homes. The report also identifies competition over scarce resources and the risk of renewed displacement.