Andy Burnham should offer more North Sea drilling as a bargaining chip in this month's EU reset talks, according to a new report that warns Europe faces repeat diesel shocks if the UK keeps winding down its own production. Whether the Prime Minister can credibly make that offer is another question — his government has already banned new North Sea drilling licences.

The paper, titled A UK-European Oil System, comes from advisory firm PF Global and was commissioned by energy firm Adura. It lands weeks before the eagerly anticipated UK-EU summit, where Burnham is expected to push for closer alignment with the trading bloc.

What does the report actually propose?

The authors argue the UK's oil and gas industry would bolster Burnham's negotiating position and contribute to Europe's "shared resilience". Their central comparison is Norway.

"Norway, outside of the EU, has built much of its relationship with Europe on its role as a reliable supplier," the paper said. "The UK can make a comparable case, presenting UKCS oil production as a contribution to shared resilience ahead of the UK-EU summit in November 2026. That case is weakened if the UK is seen to be running down its own production before getting to the table."

The caveat is obvious: a country that has banned new licences cannot easily promise new supply. The report does not address how Burnham would square that circle.

Why the urgency now?

European refinery operations have been plunged into disarray. The Middle East conflict sent oil prices soaring and strangled oil and gas supplies, while refiners' margins (the profit gap between crude input and fuel output) have been squeezed further by the spiralling cost of commissioning tankers. Some refiners have slashed output until industry fundamentals improve.

The scale of the strain is measurable. The supply-starved market prompted world leaders to release more than 100 million barrels of diesel onto the global market last month. The European Commission has also launched a fresh push to improve its refining capacity.

Much of the continent's trouble, the report notes, stems from exorbitant premiums paid to ship crude long distances across the Atlantic or through war-affected shipping routes.

What about Rosebank?

The report's most concrete recommendation is approving Rosebank, a Shetland oilfield containing roughly 400 million barrels of oil. The authors call it the most immediate way to ease pressure on Europe's energy market.

"Few levers are available to the UK in a supply crisis," they said. "Withholding consent for Rosebank would relinquish one from that limited supply unnecessarily. Developing it, and sustaining the shelf behind it, would strengthen the security of the UK and European neighbours alike."

A decision on Rosebank is believed to sit in the in-tray of energy secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh after a lengthy consultation process. Adura — the firm that commissioned the report — owns both Rosebank and Jackdaw, the gasfield Fahnbulleh rubber-stamped last month. PF Global's arguments are therefore not disinterested; its client stands to gain directly from the approval it recommends.

What does this change for the summit?

In practice, probably little yet. Announcements at the summit are expected on youth mobility, agriculture and emissions — not hydrocarbons. Burnham hopes the gathering will be the first of several deals bringing Britain closer to its largest trading partner.

Still, the report gives the Prime Minister an energy-security argument he could deploy in November 2026, provided his government's own licensing record does not undercut it first.

A spokeswoman for the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero said: "The North Sea remains a vital national asset and oil and gas will continue to play an important role in our energy system for decades to come – alongside transitioning to clean power to protect jobs and tackle the climate crisis."

The statement neither endorses nor rejects new drilling. That silence may be the most telling detail of all.