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Tesla to end Cybertruck production by mid-2027 amid refund risk

Tesla plans to end Cybertruck production by mid-2027. Elon Musk expects demand to exceed output and says many buyers will receive deposit refunds as factory capacity shifts toward Cybercab.

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E-11 / J3
Surveyed
November 10, 2026
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4 min read
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Amara Osei
Musk says many Cybertruck buyers will get deposits back as production ends, arguing ‘opportunity cost’ is vastly outweig
Fig. E-11 / J3Musk says many Cybertruck buyers will get deposits back as production ends, arguing ‘opportunity cost’ is vastly outweig — JillWellington / pixabay

Field notes

  1. Tesla plans to wind down Cybertruck production by mid-2027, about eight months after Musk’s November 9, 2026 post.
  2. Musk says Cybertruck orders exceed production and expects many waiting buyers to receive deposit refunds.
  3. Annual Cybertruck sales fell 48%, from 38,965 in 2024 to 20,237 in 2025.
  4. Kelley Blue Book estimated 11,586 Cybertruck sales through Q3 2026, versus 262,491 Model Ys and 106,962 Model 3s.
  5. Musk forecast 250,000 to 500,000 Cybertrucks annually before prioritizing additional Cybercab production.

Tesla will wind down Cybertruck production by mid-2027, with Elon Musk saying on November 9, 2026 that many waiting buyers will receive their deposits back. The electric-vehicle maker has about eight months before shutting the line as Cybertruck orders far exceed production, Musk said in an early Monday post on X.

What changes for customers?

Musk said: “We will try to make as many as possible before shutting down the line in about 8 months, but will have to return deposits for a lot of people.” Tesla had announced the wind-down on Friday, November 6, 2026, targeting a line shutdown by the middle of 2027.

Demand remained strong ahead of the shutdown. On Monday, Tesla’s website still appeared to accept new Cybertruck orders, while some enthusiasts said they had placed new orders or upgraded existing orders before production ended.

Why is Tesla ending Cybertruck production?

Tesla presents the closure as a factory reallocation, not a profitability verdict. Cybercab, its proposed driverless robotaxi, will absorb the released capacity.

Musk said the “opportunity cost of the complexity of Cybertruck is vastly outweighed by the value of incremental Cybercab production.” Opportunity cost, in Tesla’s calculation, means the additional Cybercab output and value it expects from redeploying production capacity and engineering resources.

How large is the sales gap?

Cybertruck has not supported Musk’s early volume expectations. Unlike the Model Y, the truck has struggled to reach and sustain high sales since its 2023 release. Announced in 2019, it drew praise as Tesla’s best product ever, while Musk later forecast annual output of 250,000 to 500,000 units.

Annual sales fell 48%, from 38,965 in 2024 to 20,237 in 2025. Through the third quarter of 2026, Kelley Blue Book estimated 11,586 Cybertruck sales, against 262,491 Model Ys and 106,962 Model 3s in the same period.

Tesla has already discontinued the Model S luxury sedan and Model X SUV, narrowing its consumer-vehicle lineup as Musk prioritizes autonomous vehicles and humanoid robots. The company also explores a merger with Musk’s other public company, SpaceXAI, which could move Tesla’s focus farther from conventional car sales.

What underpins the Cybercab strategy?

Musk unveiled the Cybercab concept in 2024 and presented it as a lounge-like vehicle rather than a conventional car. He pitched individualized mass transit, under which consumers could still buy a car but could instead access autonomous rides.

He said ownership costs combine the vehicle price, insurance and storage, then forecast Cybercab rides at 30 to 40 cents per mile. The economic case rests on higher vehicle utilization, meaning more hours spent carrying passengers rather than parked.

Musk said the average passenger car runs about 10 hours in a 168-hour week, leaving it idle most of the time. Autonomous vehicles, he estimated, could run five times as much and serve more riders without requiring every consumer to own a car.

Why does the Cybertruck retain a cult following?

The Cybertruck retains a cult following for its distinctive, boxy design and, for some enthusiasts, its association with Musk despite—or because of—his increasingly rightward politics. His shift once made him a close adviser to President Trump and the leader of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

After a brief falling out with Trump, he returned to the fold and reportedly spent as much as $474 million in the midterm election cycle to boost Republican candidates. Many of his preferred candidates lost following a surprisingly strong Democratic showing in the midterms last week.

Why are customers resisting the shutdown?

Tesla fans have accused the company of neglecting existing customers as Musk pursues a future in which consumers need not own vehicles. One X user said recent decisions had left them puzzled as a consumer because Tesla’s range of vehicle choices had been whittled down.

In Monday-post replies, one X user asked whether people would surrender personal cars for ride sharing and whether Tesla would displace Uber. The user doubted robotaxi would become Americans’ daily transport in the near future, concluding that such adoption would not happen.

Other users said other Tesla vehicles did not meet their needs and that Tesla should expand production rather than cut it. Another asked why Tesla had made the Cybertruck if the company now questioned the logic of producing it.

Taken together, Tesla is trading near-term Cybertruck deliveries and customer goodwill for a larger bet on Cybercab. The strategy depends on additional robotaxi production proving more valuable than the truck line, leaving buyers to absorb shorter availability and deposit uncertainty.

via fortune.com/feed/ (Source)

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Market editor covering people, launches and day-to-day practice in corporate strategy and chief-executive leadership at CEO Frontier.

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End of sheetE-11 / J3 · November 10, 2026