Nvidia has shed roughly $400 billion in market value in two days after reports that H100 and H200 chips were routed to China through a network linked to the scandal surrounding CEO Jensen Huang's family. The stock now trades near a 30-week low around $165, and traders are watching that level as the line between orderly decline and a deeper slide toward $153.

On November 10, Nvidia fell as much as 6.3% to $167.35 at midday in New York, cutting its market capitalization to roughly $4.03–$4.05 trillion. The drop briefly pushed the company to third place behind Apple and Microsoft — the first time Microsoft has passed it since June 2025.

What did the reports actually allege?

The Information reported that Alice Huang, a figure linked to the scandal, secured about 240,000 H100 and H200 chips through a family-linked network spanning China, Singapore and Malaysia. The chips were reportedly used to train models at Alibaba and Tencent. The Chinese government has strongly rebutted the spy allegations attached to the story.

For practitioners, the personal drama matters less than what it exposes. The market is now pricing a governance discount on Nvidia alongside a higher probability that US export rules tighten. US lawmakers are already moving toward stricter export controls, and a US-China summit scheduled for next week has semiconductors on the agenda.

How much China demand is actually at stake?

ByteDance, Alibaba and Tencent have ordered roughly $35 billion of Nvidia GPUs, but supply is expected to fall well short of that figure. About 600,000 H200 chips are currently sitting in Hong Kong because Beijing has not approved their entry.

That detail reframes the risk. China sales are already capped by Beijing's own approval delays, which means there is little China upside left to lose — and more regulatory downside left to price. The pressure also stacks onto the state-level data center moratorium risk that surfaced last week, leaving Nvidia facing policy headwinds at home and abroad simultaneously.

What does the chart show?

Nvidia climbed from an April low near $165 to about $243 in early October, riding a single ascending trendline drawn from that low as support. The trendline broke near $210 in late October. Price then fell in steps through $200 and $180 back to the April low, a decline of roughly 32% from the high.

The moving averages confirm the breakdown. The 21 EMA at 192.73 sits below the 78 EMA at 210.42, both are falling, and price trades beneath both. RSI at 23.61 marks the lowest reading on this chart, so a relief bounce is possible — but it has not yet changed the structure.

Which levels matter now?

The scenarios are conditions, not recommendations, over the next one to two weeks:

• Base case: a four-hour close below $165 opens $153, then $140.
• Relief case: a four-hour close above $180 signals first stabilization, with $190 and the fast EMA near $193 as the next hurdles.
• Bearish view invalid: a four-hour close above $190.
• Resistance: $180 / $190 (near the fast EMA at 192.73) / $210 (broken trendline and slow EMA).
• Support: $165 (30-week low and April low) / $153 / $140 / $130.

The US-China summit is the key event on the horizon. Until it delivers clarity on export controls, traders face a stock where the technicals, the governance narrative and the regulatory calendar all point the same direction — down — unless buyers reclaim $190.