Novig handled $1.8 billion in trading volume over the past 30 days, enough to claim third place among U.S. prediction market exchanges despite launching as a federally regulated platform only in August. The figure, tracked by the PM Pulse newsletter using data from research firm Aldrin, sits far behind Kalshi's $33.3 billion and Polymarket U.S.'s $6.3 billion — but it beats fourth-place Crypto.com by roughly $300 million and marks an 80% jump from the prior 30-day window.

For practitioners, the interesting part is the capital efficiency behind that ranking. Novig has raised $105 million in total. Kalshi has pulled in roughly $3.8 billion across 13 rounds, including two $1 billion rounds since May, according to Tracxn data. Polymarket has raised about $3.3 billion across eight rounds — including $1 billion from Intercontinental Exchange, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, and another $1 billion led by 1789 Capital, the venture firm backed by Donald Trump Jr.

"There are very few companies I think outside of AI that have achieved our level of growth in the span of two months," Novig cofounder and CEO Jacob Fortinsky said.

How did a latecomer scale this fast?

Founded in 2021, Novig spent its early years on a sweepstakes-based model that let it operate in certain states, raising $30 million along the way. A shift in the legal landscape pushed it toward federal regulation this year. In February it closed a $75 million Series B at a $500 million valuation, and it is reportedly raising again at a $2 billion valuation — a fourfold step up. Novig declined to comment on future fundraises.

One accelerant stands out: Sydney Sweeney. The actress is a part owner of the company and starred in its viral "Just Sports" ad campaign in September. In the 30 days after launch, first-time deposits rose 362% and mobile app downloads jumped 261% versus the prior 30 days, according to internal company data. During the rollout, the app briefly hit No. 1 on the App Store's chart of top free sports apps. The company has also grown from 20 to 100 employees this year.

What does sports-only positioning change?

Unlike Kalshi and Polymarket, Novig offers no contracts on politics or pop culture, and requires users to be 21 or older — its rivals admit 18-year-olds. That focus costs it headline volume spikes: when the midterms arrived, politics and election contracts on Kalshi reached $729 million on Election Day alone, and elections drove more than 70% of Kalshi's volume growth that week excluding combos.

But election trading collapses once the votes are counted. Sam Schwartz, who runs the PM Pulse, noted that on most other days this year elections made up less than half of 1% of Kalshi's daily volume. Sports, by contrast, appear on the calendar nearly every day and drive more than 80% of all prediction market trading. That steady cadence is what Novig built around.

The product argument matters too. Novig runs a peer-to-peer exchange where users trade against each other rather than against the house, which it says delivers tighter prices and lower costs than traditional sportsbooks and most rivals.

"That's the main reason Novig saw growth early as a company — it's just such a natural draw to the professional and sophisticated users out there… they want to get the best odds possible," Schwartz explained.

The low-fee pitch has limits with casual bettors, though. "The majority of users out there are not price sensitive," Schwartz said. DraftKings, FanDuel and Kalshi keep winning customers despite charging more.

Where does the market stand?

The field is consolidating around two giants. Kalshi accounts for roughly 64% of trading volume excluding combos over the past 30 days; Polymarket's U.S. and DeFi arms together hold about 23%. The remaining 13% is split among everyone else, with Novig capturing 3.5% — enough to edge out Crypto.com and DraftKings' DKeX platform. Conventional sportsbooks are also diving in, and smaller startups keep fighting for a niche.

A caveat on the numbers: the volume figures don't account for combos, or multi-game parlays, which Schwartz says can inflate volume without producing proportionally more revenue for the exchange.

Is regulation the real risk?

The legal fight over sports-related prediction markets is widely expected to reach the Supreme Court next year, and several states have already moved against the platforms. Kalshi has shrunk its footprint from 50 states to 47 after bans in three states, including Nevada and Michigan. Schwartz predicts a handful of others may follow.

Timing matters as much as outcome. Schwartz puts the odds of a ruling in June 2027 versus June 2028 at about a coin flip, and says the court would likely need to take the case by mid-January to decide in 2027. Some in the industry expect access to fall from 47 states to 35 or fewer, which "will significantly reduce [Kalshi] and prediction market current volume and future volume, especially if they lose some of the bigger, more important states," Schwartz said. Smaller players, with less market share behind them, would feel it more.

Fortinsky is not worried. "It's certainly not an existential risk to the company," he said. "We are set up to succeed and to crush the incumbents, no matter what the regulatory environment looks like. We have a stronger team, stronger product, and stronger velocity."