By Elena Vasquez

New Hampshire’s sports-betting overseer rejects tighter prediction-market controls, citing an exclusive DraftKings pact that generates $2.7 million to $3.25 million monthly for the state.

Charlie McIntyre, executive director of the New Hampshire Lottery and Gaming Commission, called DraftKings a contracted vendor and said the existing deal makes added regulation unnecessary.

McIntyre said: “We have one of the most lucrative contracts in the nation, and I don’t want to upset that apple cart.” States seeking prediction-market revenue, he said, are “not paying anybody anything.”

How do prediction markets differ from sports betting?

Michael McCann, director of UNH Franklin Pierce School of Law’s Sports and Entertainment Law Institute, said sportsbooks set odds from their own data, while prediction-market prices reflect participant trading.

With the New England Patriots as a 3.5-point favorite, a four-point win covers the spread; the opponent can cover by winning outright or staying within two points. Prediction contracts instead ask whether the Pats win: “yes” or “no.”

Both formats offer novelty wagers, including bets or trades on the color of the Gatorade poured for the winning Super Bowl coach.

How large are prediction markets?

The principal platforms, Polymarket and Kalshi, also trade pop culture and politics, including whether Post Malone will release an album by a set date.

On the Monday before the Nov. 3 midterm election, Kalshi priced Republican incumbent Kelly Ayotte as a 92.8% favorite over Democrat Cinde Warmington in New Hampshire’s governor’s race.

Democrats then swept the congressional delegation, state House, Senate and Executive Council. Kalshi recorded about $1 million in trading on the Ayotte-Warmington contest.

The largest political market was Democrat Chris Pappas against Republican John E. Sununu in the U.S. Senate race. It drew about $4.6 million on Kalshi and $1.1 million on Polymarket; Pappas won in a landslide.

Advocates describe contracts as tradable shares: buyers push prices up when others share their view and down when sentiment changes. News, political developments, sports results and social-media trends can reprice contracts within minutes.

Up to 90% of prediction-market trading concerns sports, including binary team-winner contracts and live wagers on whether an influencer appears in a motor race’s pit row during the broadcast.

How much revenue does sports betting produce?

New Hampshire legalized sports betting in 2020 and granted DraftKings exclusive rights to operate its online sportsbook and every retail sportsbook in the state’s casinos.

The state takes 51% of the “take”—gross gaming revenue after winners receive payouts—from online betting and 50% from casinos. It collects $2.7 million to $3.25 million a month in sports-betting tax revenue.

Revenue flows to the Education Trust Fund for public K-12 education and related school programs. In October, the Lottery Commission reported Fiscal Year 2026 wagering above $927 million: more than $854 million online and nearly $72 million at retail sportsbooks.

That betting delivered more than $43 million for public education in Fiscal Year 2026. Since the December 2019 launch, sports betting has generated more than $200 million for education.

At the football season’s start, the Lottery Commission expected NFL and NCAA betting to exceed the prior record above $200 million. Players had wagered more than $145 million on the NFL and more than $55 million on NCAA football, both records.

McIntyre said taxing prediction markets would be difficult because their contracts extend beyond sports. He called separation “a hard thing to do” and said he would not attempt it.

Who can regulate prediction markets?

McCann said federal law provides the platforms’ basis under the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. He linked it to the 1936 Commodities and Exchange Act, created after grain speculation affected farmers.

The 2010 Dodd-Frank Act expanded oversight to swaps, or contracts on future outcomes. Companies argue CFTC jurisdiction makes their products lawful in states without legal sports betting.

The CFTC has not prohibited sports prediction markets. McCann’s counterargument: a contract predicting a Bruins victory functions like a sports bet and falls within state regulatory power.

The dispute reaches 39 states allowing sports betting and the 11 without it, including California and Texas. Companies argue federal law permits service in those 11. New Hampshire Attorney General John Formella has issued no formal opinion or enforcement action.

What could change in 2027?

Democratic control of both chambers could reshape the revenue debate as lawmakers and the governor prepare a new two-year budget. A likely progressive agenda may require adjusted, new or alternative revenue.

Republican state Sen. Timothy Lang Sr. of Sanbornton supports state regulation and favored waiting for the Supreme Court. Lang lost reelection, and Democrats will replace Republicans in the majority with a different revenue agenda.

In Flaherty v. KalshiEX, the Supreme Court must decide whether sports-event contracts are swaps regulated exclusively by the CFTC or gambling products states can ban or regulate.

What do residents and researchers say?

A September University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll found that two-thirds of residents under 35 expect prediction markets to hurt the country over the next 10 years. Older residents remain unsure of the effect.

The survey found support for legal sports prediction markets but opposition to election, economic and political-event betting, including war. A plurality was undecided on federal regulation, while the political left favored more regulation.

Separate UNH research led by Gorkem Turgut Ozer, an assistant professor at the Peter T. Paul College of Business and Economics, associated the state’s legalization of online sports betting with a 22.8% increase in calls to the National Problem Gambling Hotline and a 3.1% increase in suicide rates.

Ozer said: “Our key finding highlights a divide: the negative consequences manifest primarily when the activity shifts online.” He linked mobile access to both increases.

The study excluded prediction markets, and Ozer declined to estimate their risks. New Hampshire can preserve a lucrative sportsbook pact while the Supreme Court and 2027 budget cycle determine the wider regulatory contest.