Nebius Group reported third-quarter revenue of $980.8 million on Thursday, a 571% jump from a year earlier — and its stock still fell 8%. The paradox resolves in one line of guidance: the company expects 2026 revenue at the low end of its $3 billion to $3.4 billion range, below the $3.35 billion that FactSet analysts had anticipated, according to CNBC.

The headline number itself beat expectations. Revenue topped the $907.5 million consensus cited by CNBC; a separate Zacks Investment Research survey put the estimate at $916.8 million, according to The Associated Press. Revenue for the first nine months of 2026 reached $1.96 billion, up 549%.

CEO Arkady Volozh told shareholders in a letter that Nebius anticipates landing near the bottom of its 2026 range. What the letter did not say is how much of that shortfall reflects demand versus supply — a distinction investors clearly wanted answered.

What do the new numbers show?

The quarter marked a turn toward profitability on several measures, though not all of them count under standard accounting rules.

• Net loss narrowed to $37.5 million, or 13 cents a share, from $119.6 million, or 50 cents a share, a year earlier.
• Operating income reached $50.4 million, against an operating loss of $130.2 million in the year-earlier quarter.
• Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, a non-GAAP measure) came in at $465.8 million, versus a loss of $5.2 million a year ago.
• Adjusted net income, also non-GAAP, was $90.9 million, compared with an adjusted net loss of $100.4 million.

The gap between the $50.4 million operating profit and the $37.5 million net loss signals financing costs pressing on the bottom line. That pressure will grow.

How much is Nebius spending to grow?

Spending on property, equipment and intangible assets totaled $7.3 billion in the quarter, up from $955.5 million a year earlier. For the full year, Nebius now expects $27 billion in capital projects — raised from its previous guidance of $20 billion to $25 billion, and well above the $23.85 billion FactSet analysts had expected, according to CNBC.

The company funded part of this push by raising $5.75 billion through convertible notes (debt that can convert into equity) during the period. Cash and cash equivalents stood at $7.4 billion on September 30.

What does the 2027 outlook promise?

Nebius issued an initial 2027 revenue outlook of $12 billion to $13 billion — roughly a fourfold increase on even the top of its 2026 range. The company said the figure takes a cautious view of how quickly it can build out its data centers.

The caveat is structural: a forecast hinged on construction timelines is a forecast about execution, not about customer demand. Any slip in data center delivery would show up directly in revenue.

Management will hold an earnings webcast at 8 a.m. ET on Thursday, where analysts are likely to press on the same gap the market punished: record growth, record spending, and guidance that undershoots the Street on both revenue and capex tolerance.

For now, the market's verdict is that a 571% revenue jump is worth less than a $350 million shortfall at the bottom of the guidance range.