By Amara Osei

The OANDA US Nasdaq 100 contract traded at 28,275 at 07:23 UTC on November 13, leaving the four-hour setup capped by 28,620 and bearish below 28,650. AetherEdge assigns a 55% probability to yields above 5% and Nvidia’s leadership shock keeping the rebound below 28,620.

What does the daily trend show?

The daily trend remains down, with lower highs from 31,400 on October 6 to 30,045 on October 28, 28,862 on November 4 and 28,617 on November 11. Cash Nasdaq 100 (NDX) closed at 28,289, below its 20-, 50- and 100-day averages of 28,651, 29,537 and 29,379, but about 260 points above the 28,029 200-day moving average, according to Yahoo Finance.

The four-hour chart has rebounded from the November 5-6 crash low of 26,273 and established higher lows at 26,659 on November 9, 27,431 on November 10 and 27,962 on November 12. The trendline joining the November 9 and 12 lows sits near 28,240, rises about 390 points per day and was under test on November 13.

Where are resistance and support?

Near-equal highs at 28,617 on November 11 at 18:00 UTC and 28,526 on November 13 form the resistance lid. The chart places resistance at 28,620, the November 11 high, then 28,860, the November 4 high; support stands near the 28,240 trendline, at 27,960 on November 12 near the 200-day average, and at 27,430 on November 10.

How has Nvidia’s exit altered the risk?

Jensen Huang resigned as Nvidia chief executive officer (CEO) with immediate effect on November 12, and chief financial officer Colette Kress became interim CEO, according to Nvidia’s release and a Form 8-K current report filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Nvidia closed down 4.3% after trading as much as 12% to 14% lower intraday, then lost about 3% more after hours, Reuters reported.

AMD rose 5.9% and Broadcom gained 5.5%, according to Reuters. Nvidia’s third-quarter results, due at 21:20 UTC on Tuesday, November 17, will provide the next scheduled company-specific catalyst.

What does the macro backdrop imply?

Cash NDX closed Thursday at 28,289, down 0.30%, after gaining 2.3% on Wednesday as CoreWeave results lifted semiconductor shares and the semiconductor index SOX rose 5.7%, according to Yahoo Finance and Reuters. Nasdaq 100 futures traded at 28,346 at 07:04 UTC, according to Yahoo Finance.

The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.12%, a three-week high, while the two-year yield stood at 4.86% after rising 14 basis points, or 0.14 percentage points, on Thursday, according to CNBC. Markets priced a December Federal Reserve hike almost in full, with 10% to 15% odds of a 50-basis-point move, according to CME FedWatch via Yahoo and TradingView News.

Federal Reserve officials Williams and Daly signalled further tightening. Williams said, “more interest rate increases are likely,” while Daly said, “further tightening will be needed,” Reuters reported.

The dollar index stood at 103.12, while the volatility index VIX was 18.70, down from about 28 on November 6, according to CNBC. Brent crude reached 96.50 after a 3.3% Thursday rise, also according to CNBC.

What are the two scenarios?

AetherEdge assigns 55% to Scenario A: yields above 5% and the Nvidia leadership shock keep the rebound below 28,620. A four-hour close below 27,950 would break the trendline and November 12 low, opening 27,430. A four-hour close above 28,650 invalidates that bearish case.

Scenario B carries 45%, requiring a soft US producer price index (PPI) reading to cool yields and let the trendline hold. A four-hour close above 28,650 would open the November 4 high at 28,860, while a close below 27,950 cancels this scenario and opens 27,430.

What can change the setup next?

The next scheduled US producer price index release arrives at 13:30 UTC, or 08:30 Eastern Time, on November 13. Consensus expects October headline producer prices to rise 0.4% month on month and the core measure to gain 0.3%.

• November 13 speakers: Collins at 14:10 UTC, Logan at 14:40, Bowman at 15:50 and Daly at 17:00.
• November 14, 00:00 UTC: Jefferson.
• November 15, 23:50 UTC: Japan third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP).
• November 17, 21:20 UTC: Nvidia third-quarter results.

A four-hour close above 28,650 or below 27,950 would resolve the current technical setup, subject to the scheduled catalysts. This AetherEdge assessment is not financial advice.