The Federal Reserve could miss its 2% inflation target for eight consecutive years — matching the duration of Operation Iraqi Freedom — after its own forecasts pushed the "mission accomplished" date to 2029.

In a few months, the Fed will mark six years of inflation above target, a streak that began in early 2021. The central bank's September summary of economic projections pushed the return to 2% back to 2029, from a 2028 forecast made in June, as energy prices stayed high.

The comparison to the Iraq war is more than rhetorical. Like that conflict, the Fed's inflation fight is being driven by events in the Middle East — this time Iran.

Why did the inflation outlook deteriorate?

Inflation was trending lower at the start of the year, as the initial spike from President Donald Trump's tariffs last year wore off. Then crude prices soared after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and attacked regional energy infrastructure in retaliation for U.S.-Israeli strikes.

Oil exports have since rebounded with U.S. military protection. Supplies of refined products like gasoline and diesel remain tight, however, keeping pressure on consumers at the pump.

Energy is not the only force at work. GDP growth is running hot as AI hyperscalers pour hundreds of billions of dollars a year into the economy, adding demand-side pressure on prices.

What did the October CPI show?

This past week's consumer price index for October came in hotter than expected and showed inflation spreading beyond energy into more goods and services — a development that alarmed Fed officials.

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee called the data "borderline disturbing."

Core consumer prices rose 0.3% from the prior month. That number matters because Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Tuesday that a 50-basis-point rate hike should be considered at the December meeting if October core prices rose by 0.3% or more. They did.

"Hiking only 25 basis points would put our credibility at risk, a risk I am not eager to take," Waller explained.

Could rates rise faster?

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, in separate remarks on Tuesday, said it "may be possible to move more rapidly" than the path implied by September's quarter-point hike and October's hold. She warned the current 3.75%-4.00% policy rate is too low and adds to inflationary pressure.

Fellow policymakers have indicated more hikes are needed, possibly even a jumbo-sized 50-basis-point increase.

The backdrop is an Iran conflict with no end in sight. Trump has backed away from repeated threats to restart major combat operations but has also rejected negotiations, saying the U.S. does not need a peace deal with Iran.

"We're just keeping it the status quo," Trump told reporters on Monday.

With the conflict dragging on indefinitely, the Fed may have to readjust its inflation outlook again and turn more aggressive on rates.

Is the Fed running out of patience?

The Fed has absorbed a series of shocks outside its control since inflation first breached 2% in early 2021:

• pandemic-era supply-chain snarls and massive fiscal stimulus
• Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which sent oil and gas prices soaring
• Trump's trade war last year
• Trump's Iran war this year

Fed Chairman Kevan Warsh has argued nonetheless that high inflation is a "choice," suggesting shocks are no excuse. Other central bankers have said the longer inflation stays above target, the less willing they are to "look through" short-term spikes.

Their fear: an extended period of high prices will lift consumers' long-term inflation expectations and change spending patterns in ways that fuel even more inflation. That is why the Fed has sounded more hawkish lately — to keep expectations anchored and to dispel any belief that it tolerates higher prices.

"I believe that the central bank has definitely got work to do to continue to reestablish its credibility," Goolsbee told CNBC on Friday. "We've been above 2% for almost six years, and while we sometimes were making progress, lately we're not making any progress, and if anything, it's going the wrong way."

Diane Swonk, chief economist and managing director at KPMG, said Fed hawks are coalescing as inflation has been too hot for too long — and is moving higher.

"Fed is losing its inflation fighting credibility," she posted on LinkedIn this week. "Consumers who rely mostly on wages, not their stock portfolios, are paying the price."

Eight years above target is the current trajectory. December's rate decision will show how much pain the Fed is prepared to inflict to shorten it.