EUR/USD has printed a fresh 18-month low at 1.1046, and the level that used to hold the pair up — 1.1100 — now works as a ceiling. That's the core of the story: a hot US inflation print has convinced markets the Federal Reserve will hike again in December, and traders are even pricing talk of a larger, 50 basis-point move (one basis point equals 0.01 percentage point).

The euro's problem isn't the European Central Bank. The ECB will most likely raise rates in December too, according to the analysis from TradingView author Tregor-invest. But the market doubts the ECB will go much further than that. So the rate gap between the two central banks, not the absolute level of European rates, is what keeps the euro on the back foot.

The dollar side of the equation confirms it. The Dollar Index (DXY, a gauge of the greenback against a basket of major currencies) has broken out of its recent trading range and now holds near 103. A breakout, in plain terms, means the index left the band it had been trapped in — and it left it upward.

What did the Eurozone data say?

Here's the striking part. Eurostat-style good news arrived, and the euro ignored it. Eurozone Q3 GDP was revised strongly upward, to +0.6% from an initial +0.4%, and the pair still hit that new low at 1.1046 on the same day. The analyst's read: "That shows clearly who is in charge right now: the dollar." When positive domestic data can't lift a currency, positioning and US rate expectations dominate everything else.

Where is the technical picture pointing?

The breakdown works across two timeframes, and the numbers stack cleanly:

• Daily chart (D1): a downtrend running since September, from roughly 1.17. The market structure has broken lower, price sits in the discount zone (an area well below recent value, generally attractive to sellers on pullbacks), and the next notable pool of liquidity — clustered orders that tend to magnetize price — sits around 1.07.
• Four-hour chart (H4): since November 10, a bearish impulse of almost 200 pips from 1.1240 (a pip is the standard smallest EUR/USD increment, 0.0001). The pair is now consolidating in a tight 1.1045–1.1075 band while the market digests the drop.

What are the trade scenarios?

The author, who trades EUR/USD algorithmically and publishes a daily read of trend, key levels and news, lays out two paths.

Main scenario: a pullback to 1.1090–1.1100 — the breakdown level — where sellers are expected to step back in. From there, a continuation lower toward 1.1000 first, then 1.0950. Pullbacks to a broken level are a classic continuation setup: the old floor becomes the new roof.

Alternative: if the four-hour chart closes and holds above 1.1140, the bearish impulse is broken, and a move back toward 1.1200 comes into play. That's the line in the sand for anyone running the short side.

What comes next on the calendar?

US PPI (Producer Price Index, a measure of wholesale inflation that often feeds through into consumer prices) is due at 13:30 GMT. The stakes are simple. A strong print adds one more argument for the dollar and for the December hike case. A weak one could be the trigger for that pullback toward 1.1100 — the move the main scenario is waiting for.

The piece closes with the standard caveat: not investment advice.

Why it matters for executives: currency moves at this speed don't stay in the FX desk's spreadsheet. A euro trading from 1.17 toward 1.07 over a quarter reshapes import costs, translation of European earnings, and the relative attractiveness of dollar-denominated debt. If the Fed delivers 50 basis points in December while the ECB pauses after its own hike, the rate differential — the mechanism driving all of this — widens again, and 1.07 stops being a technical target and starts being a base case.