By Amara Osei

European Union (EU) leaders aim to settle Christine Lagarde’s successor at the special European Council (the bloc’s leaders’ meeting) on November 26-27 in Brussels. First informal leader-level contacts on the succession are expected in Dublin on Friday, ahead of the decision. Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez will not attend Friday’s meeting of the 27 heads of state and government.

What changes on the Dublin agenda?

Friday’s informal European Council has three agenda components:

• Ukraine: the Moscow-Kyiv peace talks promoted by the United States, and the role the European Union must play.
• Artificial intelligence: governance of the technology, including how Europe can benefit from competition with the United States and China.
• Central-bank succession: the search for Lagarde’s successor at the European Central Bank (ECB), including first informal contacts between the two candidates.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s concern about the lack of coordination among the 27 in responding to the US-promoted talks prompted European Council President António Costa to add Ukraine to both the Dublin agenda and the formal council in November. The change turns an AI discussion into a test of alignment on war and European security.

Three files will therefore compete for leader time: AI governance, the security and financing response to Ukraine, and the ECB’s leadership transition.

Can Merz’s budget threat force action on Ukraine?

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz wrote to Costa demanding a permanent solution to Kyiv’s financial needs. He threatened to block the post-2027 European budget agreement without steps toward that solution, linking Ukraine support directly to the bloc’s next spending framework.

That escalation puts security assistance and EU fiscal discipline in one negotiation.

Who can replace Lagarde?

Delegation sources expect Dublin to produce the first contacts between Pablo Hernández de Cos, the former governor of the Bank of Spain, and the Dutch candidate Klaas Knot. Hernández de Cos is the Spanish aspirant seeking Lagarde’s position, and leaders want to close the choice at the special European Council on November 26 and 27 in Brussels.

A senior European diplomat said the informal venue was “propitious” for addressing key issues among the 27, including “the balance within the ECB.” The diplomat linked that balance to other upcoming vacancies at the issuing authority’s senior level.

Élysée sources said Macron and Merz have already contacted each other to seek a common vision on the ECB’s personnel, missions and objectives and an “orderly” and “rapid” transition that protects the institution’s stability. Dublin’s value is therefore political rather than procedural: it can test whether major capitals can bridge differences before the formal appointment decision.

What does the broader meeting add?

The day before Friday’s meeting, the European Political Community (a forum created after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine) will bring nearly 50 European leaders to Dublin on Thursday. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will participate, and British Prime Minister Andy Burnham is also due to attend.

The forum convenes the continent’s leaders twice a year, with the next meeting scheduled for Zurich in April 2027. Under the motto “A strong, secure and connected Europe,” its discussion will cover:

• drug trafficking;
• organized crime; and
• disinformation used to destabilize the continent.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will attend for the second time since the forum launched in 2022. His presence signals Canada’s aim to come as close to the EU as possible without crossing the accession border.

Will Canada secure associate status?

At the recent EU-Canada summit, von der Leyen promoted an “associate member” model short of the accession border. Germany rejected that approach, so the final declaration did not advance it. The EU will limit the initiative to strengthening existing ties.

The result leaves Dublin with a narrower objective than von der Leyen sought: closer institutional links without moving Canada inside the EU’s accession framework.

Taken together, the two Dublin meetings test whether the EU can coordinate on Ukraine financing, complete a central-bank handover and widen external partnerships without eroding its internal boundaries.