Stablecoin supply contracted by $14.2 billion in the 30 days through Nov 9, the largest withdrawal since the Terra collapse in June 2022, according to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode. Bitcoin traded near $69K on Friday, down about 3% in the past day and below the average buy price of recent investors, which Glassnode puts near $75,600.

The shrinkage matters because stablecoins — digital tokens pegged to cash that traders use to fund crypto purchases — provide the market's buying power. A smaller pool leaves "less fuel for a rally," Glassnode warned this week.

Where is the money leaving?

Fund demand is fading alongside the stablecoin drain. Glassnode said about $1.6 billion has left US spot bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds that track the coin's price) over 20 sessions. Farside data showed $299.8 million in outflows on Nov 11 alone, mostly from BlackRock's IBIT.

External pressure compounded the outflows:

• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang resigned on Nov 12.
• Hotter US inflation data raised the odds of a December Fed rate hike, lifting the dollar and yields.
• Iran's IRGC claimed a strike on a US radar site in Bahrain.

Leveraged traders absorbed the damage. CoinGlass counted $1.23 billion in liquidations over 24 hours, mostly long bets, with bitcoin accounting for about $677.5 million. Ether fell 6.2% to $1,922, and XRP traded near $1.

What do the technicals show?

Bitcoin has closed below both moving averages traders watch most — indicators that smooth daily swings by averaging closing prices over a set number of days. The 50-day average sits near $78K; the 200-day average sits near $76K. When price trades under both lines, they tend to act as ceilings on any bounce.

The 50-day line still sits above the 200-day, a sign the drop from recent highs was fast and steep. Losses span every timeframe: bitcoin is down about 10% over the past week and about 18% over the past month, a pattern that points to steady selling from impatient holders.

Glassnode's cost data adds pressure. Investors who bought near the $75,600 average entry are sitting on losses, and many may sell as price climbs back toward their break-even. That creates a supply band exactly where the two moving averages sit.

Can whale bids hold the line?

Large holders are stepping in. Glassnode said wallets holding 100 to 10,000 BTC have placed large buy orders between $68,000 and $72,500 — a band bitcoin already occupies, meaning those bids are being tested now.

The firm flagged a second buying zone between $62,000 and $66,000, overlapping the nearest support on the daily chart. If whale orders keep absorbing sales there, the slide could slow.

A break below that support weakens the case. The next floor sits near $59K, with little standing between the two levels; forced selling from leveraged longs could accelerate any move through that gap.

Is the market oversold?

Bitcoin's daily RSI (relative strength index, a 0-to-100 momentum gauge) stands at 25, below the 30 threshold that counts as oversold. Such readings often precede relief bounces, as short sellers take profits and bargain hunters step in — but an oversold signal alone does not mark a bottom, and price can keep sliding for days.

The MACD (moving average convergence divergence, which compares short and longer-term price trends) remains below its signal line, confirming that momentum still points down. Trend-strength readings show sellers leading a real trend. Any bounce would need to hold for several sessions before it signals a turn.

What are the two paths from here?

• Bullish: a daily close above resistance near $75K — close to the 200-day average and recent buyers' cost — would show the whale bids are winning and open the way toward the next ceiling near $80K. The setup fails if price slips under the nearest support.
• Bearish: a break below the nearest support would send price toward the $59K floor with little to slow it. A reclaim of the $75K resistance would cancel this view.

Glassnode's verdict: the trend stays bearish until fresh money returns, meaning stablecoin supply growing again and ETF flows turning positive for more than a session or two. Risks cut both ways — oversold markets can spark sharp short squeezes, while another macro shock from inflation data or the Middle East could deepen the drop.